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The June 2008, Together with First Half 2008, U.S. Automobile Sales Statistics: Honda's June Sales Soar 14% to Set a New June Record, Ford and Chrysler Sales Plunge Again, GM Sales Drop But Dodge a Plunge, Market Shares of 6 Largest Auto Sellers Hold Steady, Reliable Two Continue to Hold Top 4 of Best Sellers
AutoOnInfo.net July 2008
The June 2008, Together with First Half 2008, U.S. Automobile Sales Statistics: Honda's June Sales Soar 14% to Set a New June Record, Ford and Chrysler Sales Plunge Again, GM Sales Drop But Dodge a Plunge, Market Shares of 6 Largest Auto Sellers Hold Steady, Reliable Two Continue to Hold Top 4 of Best Sellers
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of .89, saw its U.S. auto sales drop 12% in June 2008, over those of June 2007. Its June U.S. car sales rose 2%, but its U.S. light truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales plunged 31%.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of June 2008 and year-to-date, together with 1999-2003 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. A model name in bold denotes a hottest seller in January 2008 by the Wall Street Journal's lot-stay time.
Table I: Toyota Motor Corporation's June 2008 U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, TMC's Year-to-Date 2008 U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, and 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank Averages, for Manufacturer, Line, and Model Manu-facturer Divi-sion Type of Vehicle Model and (distinctions) June 2008 Unit Sales Volume Percent-age Change for June 2008 from June 2007 The 2008 Year-to-Date Unit Sales Volume The 2008 Year-to-Date Percent-age Change 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 193,234 -11.5% 1,240,086 -6.2% .89 Scion Division 11,870 6.5% 65,874 8.7% N/A15 xA (R05, R08, RA08) 4 -99.4% 39 -99.6% N/A16 xB (R05, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, GW07) 4,685 0.3% 25,926 40.4% N/A17 tC (GB08) 4,155 -28.2% 23,730 -28.8% N/A xD (RA08) 3,026 N/A 16,179 N/A N/A Toyota Division 161,111 -11.3% 1,037,501 -5.9% .88 Passenger Car 107,154 4.2% 614,928 -0.4% N/A Avalon (GB08, Tr08, GS07, GC07) 3,165 -37.1% 24,438 -34.4% .95 Camry (AL07, GB08, 4-cyl.: R05, R06, RV07, RA08, Tr08, 4-cyl. hybrid: R08, RA08, GD07, GD08, 6-cyl.: Tr08, 6-cyl. Solara: RA08) 41,5728 0.3% 239,881 0.4% .93,.88, .92,.8510 Corolla (R05, R06, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, Tr08, RV07, AL07, 5-spd manual: GD07, GD08, Matrix: R08, RA08) 42,180 30.0% 194,488 -3.2% .93 Prius (CL07, T05, T06, T07, T08, R05, R06, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, Tr08, RV07, GT07, GD07, GD08, GW07, GS07, GC07) 11,765 -25.5% 91,440 -2.6% .91 Yaris2 (R05, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, E08, RV07, 5-spd manual: GD07, GD08) 8,472 4.1% 64,680 39.9% .9718 Light Truck 53,957 -31.5% 422,573 -12.9% N/A RAV4 (SUV) (CL07, T07, T08, R05, R06, R07, GB08, 4-cyl.: R08, RA08, RV07, RIT) 9,597 -26.4% 71,516 -17.4% .9719 Sienna (minivan) (T07, T08, R08, GB08, GS07) 8,578 -24.5% 66,270 -9.1% .8320 Highlander (mid-size SUV) (CL07, R05, R06, R07, R08, GB08, GS07, 4-cyl.: GW07, E08, Tr08, 6-cyl.: RA08, Tr08, RV07, hybrid: T06, T07) 6,8729 -31.3% 61,389 -4.6% .9911 FJ Cruiser (SUV) (R07) 1,701 -57.3% 16,662 -43.6% N/A 4Runner (SUV) (CL07, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, 6-cyl.: E08, Tr08, RV07, GS07) 2,839 -48.9% 27,121 -38.2% .9312 Sequoia (large SUV) (GB08, E08) 2,444 40.8% 16,544 29.6% .68 Land Cruiser (large SUV) (CL07, R05, R06, R08, GB08, E08, Tr08, RV07, RIT) 324 118.3% 2,487 101.1% .94 Tundra (pickup truck) (R05, R06, GB08, 6-cyl.: GW07, GS07, GC07, 6-cyl. 2wd: E08, 8-cyl. 2wd: R08, E08, 8-cyl. 4wd: E08) 10,238 -47.0% 76,516 -7.0% .8613 Tacoma (pickup truck) (AL072, 4-cyl.: R08, E08, Tr08, V6: E08, Tr08, RIT) 11,364 -16.6% 84,068 -8.5% .9314 Lexus Division 20,253 -21.1% 136,711 -14.1% .91 Passenger Car 12,942 -16.6% 81,259 -17.3% N/A ES (CL07, T07A, R07, RV07, GB08, RIT) 5,726 -10.9% 33,156 -17.4% .96 LS (CL07, T05, R05, R06, R07, RA08, GB08, E08, Tr08, RV07, RIT, L: T08) 1,5257 -34.8% 11,554 -33.8% .99 GS (R06, 450h: R08, RA08, GB08, 6-cyl. rwd: E08, Tr08, V8: Tr08) 1,2136 -32.5% 9,059 -18.4% .973 SC (hardtop convertible) (R05, R06, R07, RA08, GB08, E08, Tr08) 154 -55.7% 1,230 -40.9% .881 IS (R05, R06, R08, GB08, E08, Tr08) 4,3244 -6.1% 26,260 -4.5% .94 Light Truck 7,311 -27.9% 55,452 -8.9% N/A RX (SUV) (T05, R08, RA08, GB08, RIT, GS07) 5,8205 -30.0% 42,510 -13.1% .95 GX (SUV) (GB08) 860 -47.6% 8,764 -16.0% .781 LX (large SUV) (R05, RA08, Tr08) 631 230.2% 4,178 172.2% .84 Gas-Electric Hybrids 17,806 -26.8% 145,159 -0.3% N/A Toyota Division 16,330 -28.5% 135,025 N/A N/A Lexus Division 1,476 -1.9% 10,134 N/A N/A Note: Percentage changes are daily selling rate percentage changes from previous year's version of the model, and Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon. A model name in bold denotes a hottest seller in January by the Wall Street Journal's lot-stay time. 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of the GS is .97 and that of the V6 rear-wheel-drive GS is .90. 4The June 2008 sales breakdown of the IS 250, the IS 350, and the IS F was unstated. 5The Lexus RX 350 had June sales of 4,490 (down 35.1% from June 2007) and the hybrid RX 400h - 1,330 (down 4.2%). 6The June 2008 sales breakdown of the Lexus GSs was unstated. 7The June 2008 sales breakdown of the Lexus LSs was unstated. 8The non-hybrid Camry had June sales of 38,518 (up 5.4%) and the Camry Hybrid - 3,054 (down 37.9%). 9The non-hybrid Highlander had June sales of 5,361 (down 31.9%) and the Highlander Hybrid - 1,511 (down 29.3%). 10The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of the 4-cylinder Camry is .93, that of the V6 Camry is .88, that of the Camry Solara is .92, and that of the V6 Camry Solara is .85. However, it should be noted that the V6 Camry Solara's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is only .47, a disaster for a Toyota product, but very much above average for a Big Three product. 11The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 Highlander. 12This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 4Runner. 13The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V8 Tundra. 14This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 Tacoma. 15The Scion line's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank average (based on only one year of data) is .88. 16The Scion xA's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is .90. 17The Scion xB's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is .86. 18This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is that of the Echo, the Yaris' less refined predecessor. 19This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the 4-cylinder RAV4. 20Advisory: While the 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank of the Toyota Sienna is .83, the early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is only .54 and that of the all-wheel-drive Toyota Sienna is even worse - .31, both surprisingly bad for Toyota (but excellent when compared with Big Three minivan Percentranks). T05 denotes a Consumer Reports 2005 Top Pick, T06 - a CR 2006 Top Pick, T07 - a CR 2007 Top Pick, T08 - a CR 2008 Top Pick, T05 - a CR 2005 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T06 - a CR 2006 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T07 - a CR 2007 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T08 - a CR 2008 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T05A - a CR 2005 Top Pick alternate, T06A - a CR 2006 Top Pick alternate, and T07A - a CR 2007 Top Pick alternate. R05 denotes that Consumer Reports accorded the 2005 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, R06 - that CR accorded the 2006 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, R07 - that CR accorded the 2007 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, and R08 - that CR accorded the 2008 model its highest predicted short-term reliability. RV07 denotes a best model by CR's 2007 Reliability Verdicts. RA08 denotes a 2008 best model by CR's Reliability-Verdict history from the 5 most-recent model years. GB08 denotes a CR 2008 Good Bet. E08 denotes a model with a Best Engine by CR's engine reliability verdicts for 6-to-10-year-old vehicles. Tr08 denotes a model with a Best Transmission by CR's transmission reliability verdicts for 6-to-10-year-old vehicles. RIT denotes a top-ten model by the 2007 Reliability Index. CL07 denotes a Consumer Reports 2007 best bet "for the long run," i.e., a good candidate for a long distance runner. AL07 denotes a model with 5 or more listings on AOI's 300,000+ mile roster. The Toyota Tacoma pickup and its predecessor, the Toyota Pickup, have a pooled count. GT07 denotes that it is one of two current models that have reduced exhaust emissions sufficiently to receive a permit to use the car pool lanes on Arizona's freeways. (See "Cleaning Arizona Air: The Exclusive Three," Auto on Info, March 2007.) GD07 denotes that the 2007 model, or specified edition of the model, is on GreenerCars.com's top dozen green cars. GD08 denotes that the 2008 model, or specified edition of the model, is on GreenerCars.org's top dozen green cars. GW07 denotes that the model, or specified edition of the model, is best in category on global warming performance, by the Union of Concerned Scientists, GS07 denotes best in category on smog performance, and GC07 denotes best in category on combined environmental performance. (See "By Yet Another Quality Measure, Toyota and Honda Are Best and GM and DaimlerChrysler - Worst: The UCS 2007 Environmental Report," Auto on Info, April 2007.) To view a table providing Toyota's models on Consumer Reports' list of 2007 models having the highest predicted short-term reliability, go to "By CR's Predicted Short-Term Reliability for Model Year 2007, Toyota and Honda Dominate Best and GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler Dominate Worst, per Detroit News Table," Auto on Info, November 2006. To view a table providing Toyota's models on Consumer Reports' list of 2008 models having the highest predicted short-term reliability, go to "By CR's Predicted Short-Term Reliability Scores for Model Year 2008, Toyota and Honda Marques Gather 5 of 6 Best, GM Marques Gather 3 of 7 Worst, 5 of 9 Worst and 7 of 13 Worst: Is GM on a Quest to Be Junk's Absolute Monarch?" Auto on Info, October 2007. In June 2008, Toyota Motor Corporation reported sales in the U.S. of 17,806 hybrid vehicles, down 26.8% over June 2007. The Toyota division had sales of 16,330 hybrids, down 28.5%, and the Lexus division had sales of 1,476 hybrids, down 1.9%. The decline reflects a severe shortage of parts (one or more new battery lines will come on-line in 2009) and surging international demand.
The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in June 2008 over June 2007 were the Lexus LX 570 large sport-utility vehicle, up 230.2% to 631, the Toyota Land Cruiser large sport-utility vehicle, up 118.3% to 324, the Toyota Sequoia large sport-utility vehicle, up 40.8% to 2,444, the legendary Toyota Corolla small car, up 30.0% to 42,180, the non-hybrid Toyota Camry family car, up 5.4% to 38,518, and the Toyota Yaris small car, up 4.1% to 8,472.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in June 2008 Lexus LX 570 Toyota Land Cruiser Toyota Sequoia Toyota Corolla (Non-hybrid) Toyota Camry Toyota Yaris The above photos are of the 2008 models and the links in unhighlighted cells are to onsite review pages of the 2008 models and the link in the highlighted cell is to an onsite review page of the 2007 model. Note that Toyota's 3 hottest sellers in June were large sport-utility vehicles, a class of automobiles that most of the press have said has fallen out of favor. However, 2 of the next 3 are fuel efficient vehicles.
With respect to unit sales volume, two of the top 4 sellers were Toyota vehicles and the other two were Honda vehicles. The following table lists these 2 top sellers by Toyota, together with sales.
Toyota Motor Corporation's Top 2 Sellers in June 2008, Together with Unit Sales Model Unit Sales The legendary Toyota Corolla/Matrix small car 42,180 The Toyota Camry/Hybrid family car 41,572 The next table depicts these two top sellers and provides links to onsite reviews.
Toyota's Best Sellers in June 2008 Toyota Corolla Toyota Camry Toyota Camry Hybrid The above photos are of the 2008 models and the links in cells are to onsite review pages of the 2008 models. The Toyota Corolla, up 30.0% for the month, is an internationally renowned 40-year legend of reliability, durability (see "Site Manager Replaces Corolla Transmission: 1984 Torque Converter Expires at 478,943 Miles," Auto on Info, June 2005 and "Site Manager's 1984 Corolla Passes 500,000 Mark," Auto on Info, October 2006), and pleasing performance and appearance. As a buyer from Africa at Dubai's mid-eastern auto mart Ducamz put it: Everyone wants one. Indeed, life may not be complete without having owned a Corolla, and life may be appreciably less interesting without having owned the same one for at least 20 years and 400,000 miles.
The likelihood of finding a new made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX350 on a U.S. dealer lot is not good; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 84.9% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. through June 2008 were made in North America, 97.9% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. through June 2008 were made in North America, and 89.2% of the RX350s sold in the U.S. through June 2008 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX350 is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2007 Toyota Avalon are without any hope, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America. Currently, all Yaris and Priuses sold in the U.S. are made abroad; however, Toyota plans North American production of these models, so it may behoove U.S. consumers eyeing the Yaris or Prius to buy or order it soon. To ascertain whether a vehicle is made in Japan, check the first alphanumeric in the vehicle's identification number; if it is a J, the vehicle was made in Japan.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .84, saw its June 2008 U.S. auto sales soar 14% to set a new June sales record. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in June 2008 over June 2007 were the Honda Fit small car (a 2008 best model with a 2008 short-term reliability in CR's highest category, one of Auto on Info's two Top Car Picks of 2008, and Auto on Info's Top Car Pick of 2007, a 2007 CR Top Pick in Budget Car category, and a 2007 CR All-Around-Ability Budget-Car Quick Pick, with a 2007 and 2008 predicted short-term reliability in CR's highest category, a 2007 ownership-satisfaction rating in CR's highest category, a 2007 accident-avoidance rating in CR's second-highest category, and a 2007 crash-protection rating in CR's highest category; also, the manual transmission edition is No. 8 on GreenerCars.org's 2008 greenest dozen with a green score of 44 - tied with 4 others for No. 8 position), up 100.5% to 10,003, the non-hybrid Honda Accord family car (the 4-cylinder Accord with a 1999-2003 RPA of .96, the 4-cylinder being a 2008 best model, and the V6 Accord with a 1999-2003 RPA of .90 and a CR 2007 Top Pick, a CR 2006 Top Pick, with the 2006 EX 4-cylinder and 6-cylinder editions All-Around Quick Picks, with the 2007 EX 4-cylinder and 6-cylinder editions Well-Rounded Quick Picks, and with quite a number of additional distinctions), up 56.3% to 39,697, the Acura TSX (with a 2008 short-term reliability rating in CR's highest category, a 2008 ownership satisfaction rating in CR's second-highest category, a 2008 accident avoidance rating in CR's highest category, a 2008 crash protection rating in CR's second-highest category), up 27.5% to 3,869, and the non-hybrid Honda Civic (a 2008 best model, a 2007 CR Top Pick in Small Sedan category, a CR 2008 Good Bet, with a 2008 predicted short-term reliability in CR's highest category and with the EX accorded a 2007 predicted short-term reliability in CR's second-highest category, a 2007 ownership-satisfaction rating in CR's highest category and a 2007 accident avoidance rating in CR's second-highest category, with the automatic transmission version of the DX, LX, and EX sedan placing No. 8 on GreenerCars.org's 2008 greenest dozen with a green score of 44, and with the natural gas GX edition placing No. 1 on GreenerCars.org's 2008 greenest dozen with a green score of 57), up 26.0% to 37,257.
Honda's Hottest Sellers in June 2008 Honda Fit Honda Accord Acura TSX Honda Civic DX, LX, EX, and EX-L Sedans Honda Civic DX, LX, EX, and EX-L Coupes Honda Civic Si Sedan Honda Civic Si Coupe Honda Civic GX Sedan The above photos are of the 2008 models and the links in unhighlighted cells are to onsite review pages of the 2008 models and the links in highlighted cells are to onsite review pages of the 2007 models. As mentioned earlier, all 4 of the top 4 sellers by June unit sales were Reliable Two vehicles, 2 by Toyota and 2 by Honda. Of the 20 top selling models, 4 were Hondas. The following table lists these four top sellers by Honda, together with sales.
Honda Motor Company's Top 4 Sellers in June 2008, Together with Unit Sales Model Unit Sales The Honda Civic/Hybrid small car 39,967 The Honda Accord/Hybrid family car 39,704 The Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle 15,794 The Honda Odyssey minivan 12,602 The next table depicts these four top sellers and provides links to onsite reviews.
Honda's Best Sellers in June 2008 Honda Civic DX, LX, EX, and EX-L Sedans Honda Civic DX, LX, EX, and EX-L Coupes Honda Civic Si Sedan Honda Civic Si Coupe Honda Civic GX Sedan Honda Civic Hybrid Sedan Honda Accord Honda CR-V Honda Odyssey The above photos are of the 2008 models and the links in the unhighlighted cells are to an onsite review page of the 2008 model and the link in the highlighted cell is to an onsite review page of the 2007 model. Through June 2008, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 6,319 vehicles, or 9.5%, and the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 33,295 vehicles, or 46.6%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1999-2003 RPA of .96 and a CR 2007 and 2008 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1999-2003 RPA of .97 (4-cylinder) and a CR 2007 and 2008 (4-cylinder) predicted short-term reliability in the highest category. Also, both the 4-cylinder Toyota RAV4 and the Honda CR-V are on the list of Best Cars and Trucks of 2008 by CR Reliability-Verdict History for the 5 Most-Recent Model Years and are CR 2008 Good Bets. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, neither the Honda Odyssey nor the Toyota Sienna have fared well recently relative to other Honda and Toyota products (although the 2008 Toyota Sienna has a predicted short-term reliability in CR's highest category per CR's website and in CR's second-highest category per its publication Cars: Best and Worst for '08 and is a CR 2008 Top Pick and both the Odyssey and the Sienna are CR 2008 Good Bets), but have fared excellently relative to Big Three alternatives, as the following table helps demonstrate.
Reliability Scores, Percentranks and Grades of the 2003 Toyota Sienna Minivan and the Honda Odyssey Minivan and Minivan Alternatives Model Reliability Score Reliability Percentrank Reliability Grade Toyota Sienna .50 .73 C- Honda Odyssey .50 .73 C- General Motors' regular Chevrolet Venture Van .35 .57 F Chrysler's 2-wheel-drive V6 Dodge Grand Caravan .12 .43 F General Motors' regular Pontiac Montana Van .04 .37 F Chrysler's V6 Dodge Caravan -.02 .32 F Chrysler V6 Voyager -.07 .26 F Ford Windstar -.14 .17 F General Motors' Chevrolet Astro Van -.45 .03 F General Motors' GMC Safari Van -.45 .03 F Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1999-2003 RPA of .77, saw its June 2008 U.S. auto sales soar 18%.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of .70, saw its June 2008 U.S. auto sales fall 7%. The Nissan division of Nissan Motor saw sales drop 8% and its Infiniti division saw a sales decline of 1%.
Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .66, saw its June 2008 U.S. auto sales rise 4%.
Overall, the June 2008 U.S. sales by the auto manufacturers of higher quality products were good. Honda sales soared 14% to set a new June sales record, Subaru's sales soared 18%, and Mazda's sales rose 4%.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .31 and with the distinction of again being the dominant manufacturer on both CR's 2008 least reliable list and CR's 2008 least satisfying list, saw June 2008 U.S. unit sales of its domestic lines drop only 7%, with very, very hefty incentives. All of GM's U.S.-domestic lines experienced June sales declines - Saturn, down 1.9%, Cadillac, down 3.1%, Chevrolet, down 3.5%, Pontiac, down 5.1%, GMC, down 14.6%, Buick, down 34.4%, and Hummer, down 54.2%. Sales of its Saab line declined 51.7%.
The June drop in GM sales is modest relative to the plunges in Ford and Chrysler sales, but GM's sales may have been artificially and unsustainably inflated. Both Edmunds.com and J.D. Power & Associates predicted a GM sales decline for June that was the same-as-to-modestly-smaller-than Ford and Chrysler sales plunges; this suggests that GM relied heavily on fleet dumping to prop up June sales, coupled with some help from huge incentives on its rather gigantic truck inventories. This would explain the modest sales declines for its Chevrolet and Saturn divisions.
So, those who use ownership of a GM vehicle as an index of idiocy should not celebrate over the preservation of their measure. Indeed, GM's CEO and GM's European head are spending time denying that a bankruptcy filing is imminent.
GM has stated that its Hummer line is up for sale should there be anyone interested. However, GM's CEO and GM's European head have asserted that GM has no plans for dumping other lines.
GM's year-to-date sales are down 15.6%.
GM's declining sales come at a time when its models continue to dominate the bottom end of the quality spectrum and are setting new records (at least for recent years) of Worst of Worst and Used Cars to Avoid, as the following charts help depict.
Also, GM vehicles dominate the list of the Worst of 2008, the list of vehicles with the worst engines, and the list of vehicles with the worst transmissions, as the following charts help depict.
One of the Worst of 2008, as well as one of the models with one of the worst engines, is GM's V6 Chevrolet Malibu. However, it is also one of GM's best sellers. Consequently, GM and its dealers are fretting over the possibility that the supply
