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April 2008 U.S. Automobile Sales Statistics: February's Leisurely Stroll to
Quality Becomes April's Stampede out of Big Three Products: Chrysler's U.S.
Market Share Drops a Notch as GM's Share Remains at March's Record Low
AutoOnInfo.net May 2008
The April 2008 U.S. Automobile Sales Statistics: February's Leisurely Stroll to Quality Becomes April's Stampede out of Big Three Products: Chrysler's U.S. Market Share Drops a Notch as GM's Share Remains at March's Record Low
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of .89, saw its U.S. auto sales fall 5% in April 2008, over those of April 2007. Its April U.S. car sales rose 3%, but its U.S. light truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales fell 15%.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of April 2008 and year-to-date, together with 1999-2003 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. A model name in bold denotes a hottest seller in January 2008 by the Wall Street Journal's lot-stay time.
Table I: Toyota Motor Corporation's April 2008 U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, TMC's Year-to-Date 2008 U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, and 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank Averages, for Manufacturer, Line, and Model Manu-facturer Divi-sion Type of Vehicle Model and (distinctions) April 2008 Unit Sales Volume Percent-age Change for April 2008 from April 2007 The 2008 Year-to-Date Unit Sales Volume The 2008 Year-to-Date Percent-age Change 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 217,700 -4.5% 789,448 -4.2% .89 Scion Division 11,260 30.6% 39,146 5.1% N/A15 xA (R05, R08, RA08) 8 -99.5% 31 -99.5% N/A16 xB (R05, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, GW07) 4,220 232.1% 15,890 62.7% N/A17 tC (GB08) 4,119 -28.7% 14,409 -30.1% N/A xD (RA08) 2,913 N/A 8,816 N/A N/A Toyota Division 183,090 -4.2% 660,437 -3.8% .88 Passenger Car 109,837 5.3% 369,980 -0.7% N/A Avalon (GB08, T08, GS07, GC07) 4,195 -33.1% 17,004 -33.8% .95 Camry (AL07, GB08, 4-cyl.: R05, R06, RV07, RA08, T08, 4-cyl. hybrid: R08, RA08, GD07, 6-cyl.: T08, 6-cyl. Solara: RA08) 40,0168 -2.6% 147,018 1.3% .93,.88, .92,.8510 Corolla (R05, R06, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, T08, RV07, AL07, 5-spd manual: GD07, Matrix: R08, RA08) 32,435 -7.3% 99,482 -18.2% .93 Prius (CL07, T05, T06, T07, R05, R06, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, T08, RV07, GT07, GD07, GW07, GS07, GC07) 21,757 53.8% 64,664 21.4% .91 Yaris2 (R05, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, E08, RV07, 5-spd manual: GD07) 11,434 45.9% 41,811 56.7% .9718 Light Truck 73,253 -15.7% 290,457 -7.5% N/A RAV4 (SUV) (CL07, T07, R05, R06, R07, GB08, 4-cyl.: R08, RA08, RV07, RIT) 12,773 -18.7% 47,002 -16.7% .9719 Sienna (minivan) (T07, R08, GB08, GS07) 11,215 -19.0% 45,514 -5.6% .8320 Highlander (mid-size SUV) (CL07, R05, R06, R07, R08, GB08, GS07, 4-cyl.: GW07, E08, T08, 6-cyl.: RA08, T08, RV07, hybrid: T06, T07) 10,0089 -8.7% 43,676 4.2% .9911 FJ Cruiser (SUV) (R07) 2,682 -46.0% 12,557 -39.7% N/A 4Runner (SUV) (CL07, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, 6-cyl.: E08, T08, RV07, GS07) 4,490 -41.6% 19,996 -36.2% .9312 Sequoia (large SUV) (GB08, E08) 2,675 24.0% 10,525 16.7% .68 Land Cruiser (large SUV) (CL07, R05, R06, R08, GB08, E08, T08, RV07, RIT) 473 128.6% 1,690 91.7% .94 Tundra (pickup truck) (R05, R06, GB08, 6-cyl.: GW07, GS07, GC07, 6-cyl. 2wd: E08, 8-cyl. 2wd: R08, E08, 8-cyl. 4wd: E08) 13,350 -13.2% 54,134 23.5% .8613 Tacoma (pickup truck) (AL072, 4-cyl.: R08, E08, T08, V6: E08, T08, RIT) 15,587 -2.6% 55,363 -10.3% .9314 Lexus Division 23,350 -17.1% 89,865 -10.6% .91 Passenger Car 13,766 -22.1% 52,027 -16.2% N/A ES (CL07, T07A, R07, RV07, GB08, RIT) 5,439 -23.3% 20,599 -17.1% .96 LS (CL07, T05, R05, R06, R07, RA08, GB08, E08, T08, RV07, RIT) 1,9927 -42.2% 7,914 -33.3% .99 GS (R06, 450h: R08, RA08, GB08, 6-cyl. rwd: E08, T08, V8: T08) 1,5686 -23.3% 6,138 -14.4% .973 SC (hardtop convertible) (R05, R06, R07, RA08, GB08, E08, T08) 217 -41.3% 860 -34.2% .881 IS (R05, R06, R08, GB08, E08, T08) 4,5504 -3.7% 16,516 -2.5% .94 Light Truck 9,584 -8.6% 37,838 -1.3% N/A RX (SUV) (T05, R08, RA08, GB08, RIT, GS07) 7,1605 -15.9% 28,608 -5.9% .95 GX (SUV) (GB08) 1,625 -4.9% 6,510 -5.4% .781 LX (large SUV) (R05, RA08, T08) 799 207.3% 2,720 152.7% .84 Gas-Electric Hybrids 32,841 41.5% 101,334 20.8% N/A Toyota Division 31,013 44.1% 95,041 N/A N/A Light Truck 1,828 8.3% 6,293 N/A N/A Note: Percentage changes are daily selling rate percentage changes from previous year's version of the model, and Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon. A model name in bold denotes a hottest seller in January by the Wall Street Journal's lot-stay time. 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of the GS is .97 and that of the V6 rear-wheel-drive GS is .90. 4The April 2008 sales breakdown of the IS 250, the IS 350, and the IS F was unstated. 5The Lexus RX 350 had April sales of 5,536 (down 21.1% from April 2007) and the hybrid RX 400h - 1,624 (up 8.3%). 6The April 2008 sales breakdown of the Lexus GSs was unstated. 7The April 2008 sales breakdown of the Lexus LSs was unstated. 8The non-hybrid Camry had April sales of 33,338 (down 8.1%) and the Camry Hybrid - 6,678 (up 39.8%). 9The non-hybrid Highlander had April sales of 7,430 (down 11.3%) and the Highlander Hybrid - 2,578 (down 0.6%). 10The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of the 4-cylinder Camry is .93, that of the V6 Camry is .88, that of the Camry Solara is .92, and that of the V6 Camry Solara is .85. However, it should be noted that the V6 Camry Solara's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is only .47, a disaster for a Toyota product, but very much above average for a Big Three product. 11The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 Highlander. 12This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 4Runner. 13The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V8 Tundra. 14This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 Tacoma. 15The Scion line's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank average (based on only one year of data) is .88. 16The Scion xA's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is .90. 17The Scion xB's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is .86. 18This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is that of the Echo, the Yaris' less refined predecessor. 19This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the 4-cylinder RAV4. 20Advisory: While the 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank of the Toyota Sienna is .83, the early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is only .54 and that of the all-wheel-drive Toyota Sienna is even worse - .31, both surprisingly bad for Toyota (but excellent when compared with Big Three minivan Percentranks). T05 denotes a Consumer Reports 2005 Top Pick, T06 - a CR 2006 Top Pick, T07 - a CR 2007 Top Pick, T05 - a CR 2005 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T06 - a CR 2006 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T07 - a CR 2007 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T05A - a CR 2005 Top Pick alternate, T06A - a CR 2006 Top Pick alternate, and T07A - a CR 2007 Top Pick alternate. R05 denotes that Consumer Reports accorded the 2005 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, R06 - that CR accorded the 2006 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, R07 - that CR accorded the 2007 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, and R08 - that CR accorded the 2008 model its highest predicted short-term reliability. RV07 denotes a best model by CR's 2007 Reliability Verdicts. RA08 denotes a 2008 best model by CR's Reliability-Verdict history from the 5 most-recent model years. GB08 denotes a CR 2008 Good Bet. E08 denotes a model with a Best Engine by CR's engine reliability verdicts for 6-to-10-year-old vehicles. T08 denotes a model with a Best Transmission by CR's transmission reliability verdicts for 6-to-10-year-old vehicles. RIT denotes a top-ten model by the 2007 Reliability Index. CL07 denotes a Consumer Reports 2007 best bet "for the long run," i.e., a good candidate for a long distance runner. AL07 denotes a model with 5 or more listings on AOI's 300,000+ mile roster. The Toyota Tacoma pickup and its predecessor, the Toyota Pickup, have a pooled count. GT07 denotes that it is one of two current models that have reduced exhaust emissions sufficiently to receive a permit to use the car pool lanes on Arizona's freeways. (See "Cleaning Arizona Air: The Exclusive Three," Auto on Info, March 2007.) GD07 denotes that the model, or specified edition of the model, is on GreenerCars.com's top dozen green cars. GW07 denotes that the model, or specified edition of the model, is best in category on global warming performance, by the Union of Concerned Scientists, GS07 denotes best in category on smog performance, and GC07 denotes best in category on combined environmental performance. (See "By Yet Another Quality Measure, Toyota and Honda Are Best and GM and DaimlerChrysler - Worst: The UCS 2007 Environmental Report," Auto on Info, April 2007.) To view a table providing Toyota's models on Consumer Reports' list of 2007 models having the highest predicted short-term reliability, go to "By CR's Predicted Short-Term Reliability for Model Year 2007, Toyota and Honda Dominate Best and GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler Dominate Worst, per Detroit News Table," Auto on Info, November 2006. To view a table providing Toyota's models on Consumer Reports' list of 2008 models having the highest predicted short-term reliability, go to "By CR's Predicted Short-Term Reliability Scores for Model Year 2008, Toyota and Honda Marques Gather 5 of 6 Best, GM Marques Gather 3 of 7 Worst, 5 of 9 Worst and 7 of 13 Worst: Is GM on a Quest to Be Junk's Absolute Monarch?" Auto on Info, October 2007. In April 2008, Toyota Motor Corporation reported sales in the U.S. of 32,841 hybrid vehicles, up 41.5% over April 2007. The Toyota division had sales of 31,013 hybrids, up 44.1%, and the Lexus division had sales of 1,828 hybrids, up 8.3%.
The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in April 2008 over April 2007 were the Scion xB wagon, up 232.1% to 4,220, the Lexus LX 570 large sport-utility vehicle, up 207.3% to 799, the Toyota Land Cruiser large sport-utility vehicle, up 128.6% to 473, the Toyota Prius gasoline-electric hybrid family hatchback, up 53.8% to 21,757, the Toyota Yaris small car, up 45.9% to 11,434, the Toyota Camry Hybrid family sedan, up 39.8% to 6,678, the Toyota Sequoia large sport-utility vehicle, up 24.0% to 2,675, and the Lexus RX 400h hybrid midsize sport-utility vehicle, up 8.3% to 1,624.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in April 2008 Scion xB Lexus LX 570 Toyota Land Cruiser Toyota Prius Toyota Yaris Toyota Camry Hybrid Toyota Sequoia Lexus RX 400h The above photos are of the 2008 models and the above links are to onsite review pages of the 2007 models. The Toyota Prius, up 53.8% for the month, is Toyota's original gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the post-2004 editions is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the post-2004 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.1 In short, the post-2004 editions of the Prius are a bigger car with better gas mileage than its pre-2004 editions. Third, the Prius is a Consumer Reports 2005 Top Pick (green car category), a CR 2006 Top Pick (green car category), a CR 2007 Top Pick (green car category), a CR 2007 Long-Run Pick, a recipient of a CR's 2007 and 2008 "Most Reliable" rating for predicted short-term reliability, a recipient of a CR's 2007 highest ownership satisfaction rating for predicted short-term satisfaction, a recipient of a CR's 2007 highest crash protection rating, a UCS 2007 Best on Global Warming Performance in midsize car category, a UCS 2007 Best on Smog Performance in midsize car category, a UCS 2007 Best on Combined Environmental Performance in midsize car category, one of Arizona's two "green cars" for car pool lane usage, and No. 2 on GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen.
The likelihood of finding a new made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX350 on a U.S. dealer lot is not good; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 90.0% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. through April 2008 were made in North America, 97.4% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. through April 2008 were made in North America, and 86.8% of the RX350s sold in the U.S. through April 2008 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX350 is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2007 Toyota Avalon are without any hope, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America. Currently, all Yaris sold in the U.S. are made abroad; however, Toyota plans North American production of this model, so it may behoove U.S. consumers eyeing the Yaris to buy it within the next two years. To ascertain whether a vehicle is made in Japan, check the first alphanumeric in the vehicle's identification number; if it is a J, the vehicle was made in Japan.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .84, saw its April 2008 U.S. auto sales fall 1%. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in April 2008 over April 2007 were the Honda Civic hybrid (a 2008 best model, a 2007 CR Top Pick alternate in Green Car category, a 2007 CR Top Pick in Small Sedan category, a recipient of a CR's 2007 "Most Reliable" rating for predicted short-term reliability, a recipient of a CR's 2007 highest ownership satisfaction rating for predicted short-term satisfaction, a recipient of a CR's 2007 second-highest accident avoidance rating from road test performance, a recipient of a CR's 2007 highest crash protection rating, one of Arizona's two "green cars" for car pool lane usage, and No. 3 on GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen), up 39.8% to 4,324, the Honda Fit small car (a 2008 best model, Auto on Info's Top Car Pick of 2007, a 2007 CR Top Pick in Budget Car category, and a 2007 CR All-Around-Ability Budget-Car Quick Pick, with a 2007 and 2008 predicted short-term reliability in CR's highest category, a 2007 ownership-satisfaction rating in CR's highest category, a 2007 accident-avoidance rating in CR's second-highest category, and a 2007 crash-protection rating in CR's highest category; also, the manual transmission edition is No. 8 on GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen), up 38.5% to 5,938, the non-hybrid Honda Accord family car (the 4-cylinder Accord with a 1999-2003 RPA of .96, the 4-cylinder being a 2008 best model, and the V6 Accord with a 1999-2003 RPA of .90 and a CR 2007 Top Pick, a CR 2006 Top Pick, with the 2006 EX 4-cylinder and 6-cylinder editions All-Around Quick Picks, with the 2007 EX 4-cylinder and 6-cylinder editions Well-Rounded Quick Picks, and with quite a number of additional distinctions), up 11.7% to 34,603, the Honda Ridgeline pickup truck, up 7.5% to 4,158, and the Honda Civic (a 2008 best model, a 2007 CR Top Pick in Small Sedan category, a CR 2008 Good Bet, with a 2008 predicted short-term reliability in CR's highest category and with the EX accorded a 2007 predicted short-term reliability in CR's second-highest category, a 2007 ownership-satisfaction rating in CR's highest category and a 2007 accident avoidance rating in CR's second-highest category, with the automatic transmission version of the DX, LX, and EX sedan placing within GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen, and with the natural gas GX edition placing No. 1 on GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen), up 4.7% to 29,839.
Honda's Hottest Sellers in April 2008 Honda Civic Hybrid Honda Fit Honda Accord Honda Ridgeline Honda Civic DX, LX, and EX Sedans Honda Civic Si Sedan Honda Civic GX The above photos are of the 2008 models and the above links are to onsite review pages of the 2007 models. The Wall Street Journal reports that in April 2008, the Honda Fit was on dealer lots an average of 20 days, one day shorter than the 21 days for the Toyota Prius, a regular top ten of fast sellers for quite a number of years.
Through April 2008, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 1,507 vehicles, or 3.3%, and the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 22,056 vehicles, or 46.9%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1999-2003 RPA of .96 and a CR 2007 and 2008 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1999-2003 RPA of .97 (4-cylinder) and a CR 2007 and 2008 (4-cylinder) predicted short-term reliability in the highest category. Also, both the 4-cylinder Toyota RAV4 and the Honda CR-V are on the list of Best Cars and Trucks of 2008 by CR Reliability-Verdict History for the 5 Most-Recent Model Years and are CR 2008 Good Bets. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, neither the Honda Odyssey nor the Toyota Sienna have fared well recently relative to other Honda and Toyota products (although the 2008 Toyota Sienna has a predicted short-term reliability in CR's highest category per CR's website and in CR's second-highest category per its publication Cars: Best and Worst for '08 and both the Odyssey and the Sienna are CR 2008 Good Bets), but have fared excellently relative to Big Three alternatives, as the following table helps demonstrate.
Reliability Scores, Percentranks and Grades of the 2003 Toyota Sienna Minivan and the Honda Odyssey Minivan and Minivan Alternatives Model Reliability Score Reliability Percentrank Reliability Grade Toyota Sienna .50 .73 C- Honda Odyssey .50 .73 C- General Motors' regular Chevrolet Venture Van .35 .57 F Chrysler's 2-wheel-drive V6 Dodge Grand Caravan .12 .43 F General Motors' regular Pontiac Montana Van .04 .37 F Chrysler's V6 Dodge Caravan -.02 .32 F Chrysler V6 Voyager -.07 .26 F Ford Windstar -.14 .17 F General Motors' Chevrolet Astro Van -.45 .03 F General Motors' GMC Safari Van -.45 .03 F Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1999-2003 RPA of .77, saw its April 2008 U.S. auto sales rise 12%.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of .70, saw its April 2008 U.S. auto sales fall 2%.
Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .66, saw its April 2008 U.S. auto sales rise 4%.
Overall, the April 2008 U.S. sales by the auto manufacturers of higher quality products were not bad. April sales by Subaru rose 12%, sales by Mazda rose 4%, and sales by Honda and Nissan fell a very modest 1% and 2%, respectively.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .31 and with the distinction of again being the dominant manufacturer on both CR's 2008 least reliable list and CR's 2008 least satisfying list, saw April 2008 U.S. unit sales of its domestic lines plunge 23%, despite very hefty incentives. All of GM's U.S.-domestic lines experienced April sales declines - Buick, down 11.7%, Pontiac, down 15.9%, Cadillac, down 21.3%, Chevrolet, down 21.9%, Saturn, down 22.0%, GMC, down 29.6%, and Hummer, down 49.8%. Sales of its Saab line declined 37.9%.
GM's declining sales come at a time when its models continue to dominate the bottom end of the quality spectrum and are setting new records (at least for recent years) of infamy, as the following charts help depict.
Also, GM vehicles dominate the list of the Worst of 2008, the list of vehicles with the worst engines, and the list of vehicles with the worst transmissions, as the following charts help depict.
One of the Worst of 2008, as well as one of the models with one of the worst engines, is GM's V6 Chevrolet Malibu. However, it is also one of GM's best sellers. Consequently, GM and its dealers are fretting over the possibility that the supply of these gems may dry up (either because of the strike at American Axle and Manufacturing, Inc. or because of a possible local strike at a GM plant). This concern seems well justified, for when one of the worst sells well, it is best to get Big Three consumers through the door and money out of their pockets while they still have ants in their pants.
However, not all of the worst by GM are selling well. The Chevrolet Tahoe, one of the Worst of 2008 and a vehicle with one of the worst transmissions, has 125 days of inventory sitting on dealer lots, despite the American Axle strike that has crippled, or nearly ended, its production since February. Usual inventory for the Big Three is about 60 days and usual inventory for the Reliable Two is about 30 days.
Chrysler LLC, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .38, as well saw its April 2008 U.S. auto sales plunge 29%, despite very hefty incentives.
The following chart depicts the percentage of models, with a CR Reliability-Verdict history of one or more model years, that are among the Worst of 2008, for each of the lines of Chrysler.
Ford Motor Company, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .50, saw its April 2008 U.S. unit sales of its domestic lines plunge 19%, despite very hefty incentives.
The 2008 year-to-date U.S. market shares of the Reliable Two, the Big Three, Nissan, and Hyundai changed little from the end of March; Chrysler's share was down a notch. The following table provides the 2008 year-to-date U.S. market shares, as well as historical shares and the estimated natural market shares, of this group of seven.
Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, and Year-to-Date 2008, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993
Manu- facturer 1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Year-to-Date 2008 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993 Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .13 .16 .16 .23 .07 .09 Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .09 .10 .10 .14 .04 .05 Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .07 .07 .16 .09 N/A Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .03 .03 .03 .05 .02 N/A GM .34 .33 .31 .29