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AutoOnInfo.net  March 2008

The February 2008 U.S. Automobile Sales Statistics: U.S. Consumers Keep Mid-1990s Leisurely Stroll Toward Quality and Out of Big Three Products; As Hyundai Clobbers GM in Quality, Hyundai Does Little Better Than GM in Sales

By James B. Bleeker

Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of .89, saw its U.S. auto sales fall 7% in February 2008, over those of February 2007. Its February U.S. car sales fell 8% and its U.S. light truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales fell 5%.

The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of February 2008 and year-to-date, together with 1999-2003 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages.

Table I: Toyota Motor Corporation's February 2008 U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, TMC's Year-to-Date 2008 U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, and 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank Averages, for Manufacturer, Line, and Model
Manu-facturer Divi-sion Type of Vehicle Model and (distinctions) February 2008 Unit Sales Volume Percent-age Change for February 2008 from February 2007 The 2008 Year-to-Date Unit Sales Volume The 2008 Year-to-Date Percent-age Change 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank Average
Toyota Motor Corporation 182,169 -6.6% 354,018 -4.5% .89
  Scion Division 8,883 -4.8% 16,755 -8.6% N/A15
      xA (R05, R08, RA08) 10 -99.4% 19 -99.5% N/A16
      xB (R05, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, GW07) 3,824 28.0% 7,143 22.8% N/A17
      tC (GB08) 3,261 -28.3% 6,208 -30.7% N/A
      xD (RA08) 1,788 N/A 3,385 N/A N/A
  Toyota Division 152,009 -6.4% 295,687 -3.6% .88
    Passenger Car 80,840 -7.6% 156,377 -5.2% N/A
      Avalon (GB08, GS07, GC07) 4,073 -30.0% 8,228 -33.4% .95
      Camry (AL07, GB08, 4-cyl.: R05, R06, RV07, RA08, 4-cyl. hybrid: R08, RA08, GD07, 6-cyl. Solara: RA08) 34,9148 4.3% 66,515 2.5% .93,.88, .92,.8510
      Corolla (R05, R06, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, RV07, AL07, 5-spd manual: GD07, Matrix: R08, RA08) 21,202 -28.1% 41,938 -23.7% .93
      Prius (CL07, T05, T06, T07, R05, R06, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, RV07, GT07, GD07, GW07, GS07, GC07) 10,893 -14.5% 22,272 6.3% .91
      Yaris2 (R05, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, RV07, 5-spd manual: GD07) 9,758 64.3% 17,424 47.6% .9718
    Light Truck 71,169 -4.9% 139,310 -1.7% N/A
      RAV4 (SUV) (CL07, T07, R05, R06, R07, GB08, 4-cyl.: R08, RA08, RV07, RIT) 10,377 -14.4% 21,274 -11.5% .9719
      Sienna (minivan) (T07, R08, GB08, GS07) 11,262 -2.1% 21,668 -3.0% .8320
      Highlander (mid-size SUV) (CL07, R05, R06, R07, R08, GB08, GS07, 4-cyl.: GW07, 6-cyl.:  RA08, RV07, hybrid:  T06, T07) 10,5139 7.7% 22,836 13.7% .9911
      FJ Cruiser (SUV) (R07) 3,520 -33.0% 6,591 -35.3% N/A
      4Runner (SUV) (CL07, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, 6-cyl.: RV07, GS07) 4,961 -37.0% 10,431 -31.3% .9312
      Sequoia (large SUV) (GB08) 2,617 8.7% 4,994 12.0% .68
      Land Cruiser (large SUV) (CL07, R05, R06, R08, GB08, RV07, RIT) 394 67.4% 854 81.9% .94
      Tundra (pickup truck) (R05, R06, GB08, 6-cyl.: GW07, GS07, GC07, 8-cyl. 2wd: R08) 14,400 43.0% 26,473 62.2% .8613
      Tacoma (pickup truck) (AL072, 4-cyl.: R08, V6:  RIT) 13,125 -16.1% 24,189 -15.6% .9314
  Lexus Division 21,277 -9.3% 41,576 -8.7% .91
    Passenger Car 12,203 -13.2% 23,380 -15.3% N/A
      ES (CL07, T07A, R07, RV07, GB08, RIT) 4,795 -12.9% 9,141 -15.5% .96
      LS (CL07, T05, R05, R06, R07, RA08, GB08, RV07, RIT) 1,8917 -25.1% 3,797 -31.5% .99
      GS (R06, 450h: R08, RA08, GB08) 1,4226 -12.7% 2,902 -8.7% .973
      SC (hardtop convertible) (R05, R06, R07, RA08, GB08) 189 -35.7% 372 -37.6% .881
      IS (R05, R06, R08, GB08) 3,9064 -4.8% 7,168 -4.2% .94
    Light Truck 9,074 -3.5% 18,196 1.5% N/A
      RX (SUV) (T05, R08, RA08, GB08, RIT, GS07) 6,9565 -5.8% 13,711 -1.4% .95
      GX (SUV) (GB08) 1,549 -11.1% 3,206 -7.2% .781
      LX (large SUV) (R05, RA08) 569 103.1% 1,279 125.4% .84
Note: Percentage changes are daily selling rate percentage changes from previous year's version of the model, and Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon.
1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years
2Includes data for preceding model number
3The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of the GS is .97 and that of the V6 rear-wheel-drive GS is .90.
4The February 2008 sales breakdown of the IS 250 and the IS 350 was unstated; the new IS F had February sales of 208.
5The Lexus RX 350 had February sales of 5,808 (down 4.5% from February 2007) and the hybrid RX 400h - 1,148 (down 11.8%).
6The Lexus GS 350 had February sales of 1,201 (down 16.9%); the GS 460 and the hybrid GS 450h had combined sales of 221 (up 21.2%).
7The Lexus LS 460/460 L had February sales of 1,779 (down 29.5%) and the hybrid LS 600h L - 112 (new).
8The non-hybrid Camry had February sales of 30,793 (up 2.6%) and the Camry Hybrid - 4,121 (up 18.7%).
9The non-hybrid Highlander had February sales of 8,575 (up 10.1%) and the Highlander Hybrid - 1,938 (down 1.7%).
10The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of the 4-cylinder Camry is .93, that of the V6 Camry is .88, that of the Camry Solara is .92, and that of the V6 Camry Solara is .85. However, it should be noted that the V6 Camry Solara's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is only .47, a disaster for a Toyota product, but very much above average for a Big Three product.
11The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 Highlander.
12This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 4Runner.
13The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V8 Tundra.
14This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 Tacoma.
15The Scion line's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank average (based on only one year of data) is .88.
16The Scion xA's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is .90.
17The Scion xB's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is .86.
18This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is that of the Echo, the Yaris' less refined predecessor.
19This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the 4-cylinder RAV4.
20Advisory: While the 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank of the Toyota Sienna is .83, the early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is only .54 and that of the all-wheel-drive Toyota Sienna is even worse - .31, both surprisingly bad for Toyota (but excellent when compared with Big Three minivan Percentranks).
T05 denotes a Consumer Reports 2005 Top Pick, T06 - a CR 2006 Top Pick, T07 - a CR 2007 Top Pick, T05 - a CR 2005 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T06 - a CR 2006 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T07 - a CR 2007 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T05A - a CR 2005 Top Pick alternate, T06A - a CR 2006 Top Pick alternate, and T07A - a CR 2007 Top Pick alternate.
R05 denotes that Consumer Reports accorded the 2005 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, R06 - that CR accorded the 2006 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, R07 - that CR accorded the 2007 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, and R08 - that CR accorded the 2008 model its highest predicted short-term reliability.
RV07 denotes a best model by CR's 2007 Reliability Verdicts.
RA08 denotes a 2008 best model by CR's Reliability-Verdict history from the 5 most-recent model years.
GB08 denotes a CR 2008 Good Bet.
RIT denotes a top-ten model by the 2007 Reliability Index.
CL07 denotes a Consumer Reports 2007 best bet "for the long run," i.e., a good candidate for a long distance runner.
AL07 denotes a model with 5 or more listings on AOI's 300,000+ mile roster. The Toyota Tacoma pickup and its predecessor, the Toyota Pickup, have a pooled count.
GT07 denotes that it is one of two current models that have reduced exhaust emissions sufficiently to receive a permit to use the car pool lanes on Arizona's freeways. (See "Cleaning Arizona Air: The Exclusive Three," Auto on Info, March 2007.)
GD07 denotes that the model, or specified edition of the model, is on GreenerCars.com's top dozen green cars.
GW07 denotes that the model, or specified edition of the model, is best in category on global warming performance, by the Union of Concerned Scientists, GS07 denotes best in category on smog performance, and GC07 denotes best in category on combined environmental performance. (See "By Yet Another Quality Measure, Toyota and Honda Are Best and GM and DaimlerChrysler - Worst: The UCS 2007 Environmental Report," Auto on Info, April 2007.)
To view a table providing Toyota's models on Consumer Reports' list of 2007 models having the highest predicted short-term reliability, go to "By CR's Predicted Short-Term Reliability for Model Year 2007, Toyota and Honda Dominate Best and GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler Dominate Worst, per Detroit News Table," Auto on Info, November 2006.

In February 2008, Toyota Motor Corporation reported sales in the U.S. of 18,289 hybrid vehicles, down 6.9% over February 2007. The Toyota division had sales of 16,952 hybrids, down 6.7%, and the Lexus division had sales of 1,337 hybrids, down 8.9%.

The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in February 2008 over February 2007 were the Lexus LX 570 large sport-utility vehicle, up 103.1% to 569, the Toyota Land Cruiser large sport-utility vehicle, up 67.4% to 394, the Toyota Yaris small car, up 64.3% to 9,758, the Toyota Tundra large pickup truck, up 43.0% to 14,400, the Scion xB wagon, up 28.0% to 3,824, the Lexus GS 460/450h, up 21.2% to 221, the Toyota Camry Hybrid family sedan, up 18.7% to 4,121, the non-hybrid Toyota Highlander midsize sport-utility vehicle, up 10.1% to 8,575, and the Toyota Sequoia large sport-utility vehicle, up 8.7% to 2,617.

Toyota's Hottest Sellers in February 2008
Lexus LX 570 Toyota Land Cruiser Toyota Yaris
Toyota Tundra Scion xB Lexus GS 450h
Toyota Camry Hybrid Toyota Highlander Toyota Sequoia
The above photos are of the 2008 models and the above links are to onsite review pages of the 2007 models.

The likelihood of finding a new made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX350 on a U.S. dealer lot is not good; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 97.5% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. through February 2008 were made in North America, 97.1% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. through February 2008 were made in North America, and 83.5% of the RX350s sold in the U.S. through February 2008 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX350 is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2007 Toyota Avalon are without any hope, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America. Currently, all Yaris sold in the U.S. are made abroad; however, Toyota plans North American production of this model, so it may behoove U.S. consumers eyeing the Yaris to buy it within the next two years. To ascertain whether a vehicle is made in Japan, check the first alphanumeric in the vehicle's identification number; if it is a J, the vehicle was made in Japan.

Honda Motor Company, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .84, saw its February 2008 U.S. auto sales rise 1%. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in February 2008 over February 2007 were the Honda Fit small car (Auto on Info's Top Car Pick of 2007, a 2007 CR Top Pick in Budget Car category, and a 2007 CR All-Around-Ability Budget-Car Quick Pick, with a 2007 and 2008 predicted short-term reliability in CR's highest category, a 2007 ownership-satisfaction rating in CR's highest category, a 2007 accident-avoidance rating in CR's second-highest category, and a 2007 crash-protection rating in CR's highest category; also, the manual transmission edition is No. 8 on GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen), up 61.8% to 4,326, the Honda Pilot sport-utility vehicle (with a 1999-2003 RPA of .87 and a CR 2008 Good Bet, a recipient of a CR's 2007 "Most Reliable" rating for predicted short-term reliability and a recipient of a CR's 2007 second-highest ownership satisfaction rating for predicted short-term satisfaction), up 19.3% to 12,881, the non-hybrid editions of the Honda Civic (a 2007 CR Top Pick in Small Sedan category, a CR 2008 Good Bet, with a 2008 predicted short-term reliability in CR's highest category and with the EX accorded a 2007 predicted short-term reliability in CR's second-highest category, a 2007 ownership-satisfaction rating in CR's highest category and a 2007 accident avoidance rating in CR's second-highest category, with the automatic transmission version of the DX, LX, and EX sedan placing within GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen, and with the natural gas GX edition placing No. 1 on GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen), up 16.5% to 21,991, the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle (with a 1999-2003 RPA of .96 and a CR 2006 comfort-versatility-and-snow-traction Quick Pick, a CR 2007 All-Around-Competence Quick Pick, a 2007 CR Top Pick runner-up, a CR 2007 Long-Run Pick, a recipient of CR's 2007 highest rating for predicted short-term reliability, a recipient of CR's 2007 second-highest rating for predicted short-term ownership satisfaction, a recipient of CR's 2007 second-highest accident avoidance rating by road test performance, a recipient of CR's 2007 highest crash protection rating, a best motor vehicle model by CR's 2007 Reliability Verdicts, a CR 2008 Good Bet, and a top ten by the 2007 Reliability Index), up 11.4% to 15,694, and the Honda S2000 convertible (with a 1999-2003 RPA of .87 and a CR 2008 Good Bet), up 4.2% to 254.

Honda's Hottest Sellers in February 2008
 Honda Fit Honda Pilot Honda Civic DX, LX, and EX Sedans
Honda Civic Si Sedan Honda Civic GX Honda CR-V
Honda S2000    
   
The above photos are of the 2008 models and the above links are to onsite review pages of the 2007 models.

The Honda Fit, the Honda Pilot, the Honda Civic sedans, the Honda Civic Si, and the Honda CR-V are on the list of Best Cars and Trucks of 2008 by CR Reliability-Verdict History for the 5 Most-Recent Model Years.

Through February 2008, the Toyota Sienna minivan outsold the Honda Odyssey by 1,232 vehicles, or 6.0%, but the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 10,436 vehicles, or 49.1%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1999-2003 RPA of .96 and a CR 2007 and 2008 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1999-2003 RPA of .97 (4-cylinder) and a CR 2007 and 2008 (4-cylinder) predicted short-term reliability in the highest category. Also, both the 4-cylinder Toyota RAV4 and the Honda CR-V are on the list of Best Cars and Trucks of 2008 by CR Reliability-Verdict History for the 5 Most-Recent Model Years and are CR 2008 Good Bets. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, neither the Honda Odyssey nor the Toyota Sienna have fared well recently relative to other Honda and Toyota products (although the 2008 Toyota Sienna has a predicted short-term reliability in CR's highest category per CR's website and in CR's second-highest category per its publication Cars: Best and Worst for '08 and both the Odyssey and the Sienna are CR 2008 Good Bets), but have fared excellently relative to Big Three alternatives, as the following table helps demonstrate.

Reliability Scores, Percentranks and Grades of the 2003 Toyota Sienna Minivan and the Honda Odyssey Minivan and Minivan Alternatives
Model Reliability Score Reliability Percentrank Reliability Grade
Toyota Sienna .50 .73 C-
Honda Odyssey .50 .73 C-
General Motors' regular Chevrolet Venture Van .35 .57 F
Chrysler's 2-wheel-drive V6 Dodge Grand Caravan .12 .43 F
General Motors' regular Pontiac Montana Van .04 .37 F
Chrysler's V6 Dodge Caravan -.02 .32 F
Chrysler V6 Voyager -.07 .26 F
Ford Windstar -.14 .17 F
General Motors' Chevrolet Astro Van -.45 .03 F
General Motors' GMC Safari Van -.45 .03 F

Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1999-2003 RPA of .77, saw its February 2008 U.S. auto sales fall 4%.

Nissan Motor Company, with a 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of .70, saw its February 2008 U.S. auto sales fall 3%. Its car sales fell 2% and its light truck sales fell 4%. Sales by its luxury Infiniti division, with a 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of .81, fell les than half of a percent; sales of Infiniti cars fell 2%, but sales of Infiniti SUVs rose 5%.

Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .66, saw its February 2008 U.S. auto sales rise 2%.

Overall, the February 2008 U.S. sales by the auto manufacturers of higher quality products were not bad. February sales by Honda rose 1% and Honda's Honda division set a February record, and Mazda sales rose 2%.

At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .31 and with the distinction of again being the dominant manufacturer on both CR's 2008 least reliable list and CR's 2008 least satisfying list, saw February 2008 U.S. unit sales of its domestic lines plunge 16%, despite very hefty incentives. All of GM's U.S.-domestic lines had sales declines - Cadillac, down 2%, Pontiac, down 7%, Chevrolet, down 15%, Buick, down 19%, GMC, down 23%, Hummer, down 23%, and Saturn, down 36%. Maybe General Motors should price its vehicles a little lower - say, 5 for two bits.

The following chart depicts the percentage of GM models, with a CR Reliability-Verdict history of one or more model years, that are among the Worst of 2008, for each of the lines of General Motors.

Chrysler LLC, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .38, saw its February 2008 U.S. auto sales plunge 17%, despite very hefty incentives.

The following chart depicts the percentage of models, with a CR Reliability-Verdict history of one or more model years, that are among the Worst of 2008, for each of the lines of Chrysler.

Ford Motor Company, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .50, saw its February 2008 U.S. unit sales of its domestic lines drop 10%, despite very hefty incentives.

The 2008 year-to-date U.S. market shares of the Reliable Two, the Big Three, Nissan, and Hyundai changed some from the end of January. Honda's and Ford's were up a notch and GM's was down a notch. The following table provides the 2008 year-to-date U.S. market shares, as well as historical shares and the estimated natural market shares, of this group of seven.

Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, and Year-to-Date 2008, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993

Manu- facturer

1993

1995 1997 1999 2001  2003 2005 2007  Year-to-Date 2008 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993
Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .13 .16 .16 .23 .07 .09
Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .09 .10 .10 .14 .04 .05
Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .07 .07 .16 .09 N/A
Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .03 .03 .02 .05 .03 N/A
GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .26 .23 .23 .04 -.19 -.11
Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .17 .15 .15 .07 -.08 -.11
Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .14 .13 .13 .00 -.13 -.02
*The Estimate of Natural Market Share for each manufacturer, save Hyundai, is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts.

Hyundai's Natural Market Share Estimate is based on (1) its 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average relative to GM's and (2) its product prices relative to those of GM. A different method of estimating the Natural Market Share of Hyundai is used as its reliability has notably improved since the late 1980s, but still does not significantly differ from GM's.

GM's market share is that without the sales by its Saab division, Ford's market share is that without the sales by its Jaguar, Land Rover, and Volvo divisions, and Hyundai's market share is that without the sales by its Kia division.

Note that Ford has made good progress toward its natural market share estimate, while GM and Chrysler are laggards.

The following charts help depict the U.S. consumers' historical gait to quality and out of Big Three products.

From the charts, it may be seen that U.S. consumers are currently taking a very leisurely stroll toward quality.

In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, Hyundai (1999-2003 RPA of .41) very narrowly beat GM (1999-2003 RPA of .31) in February 2008 sales; Hyundai's sales plunged 13% as GM's plunged 16%. However, in quality, Hyundai very solidly clobbered General Motors by CR's 2008 10-year Reliability-Verdict history, as the following chart helps depict.

U.S. February 2008 auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1999-2003 RPA of .26, plunged 25%, but sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1999-2003 RPA of .21, plunged only 15%.

The New York Times reported in mid-2007, per Detroit News, that Ford Motor Company would try to dump its Jaguar and Land Rover divisions by the end of October and its Volvo division by the end of 2007. If true, Ford flunked both.

In the niche markets, Porsche February 2008 U.S. auto sales plunged 16%, BMW sales dropped 10%, and Mercedes-Benz sales rose 3%. As a group, old line European nobility did not do well in the U.S. in February 2008.

The following table summarizes February 2008 U.S. sales and percentage changes, 2008 year-to-date U.S. sales and percentage changes, and the 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank averages, where available.