Auto on Info: Car News and Commentary February 2008: The January 2008 U.S. Automobile Sales Stats: As Hyundai Clobbers GM in Quality, GM Clobbers Hyundai in Sales; Overall, the U.S. Consumer Trek to Quality and Out of Big Three Products Slows to the Leisurely Stroll of the Mid-1990s, by James Bleeker

Bookmarking Auto on Info pagesSupporting Auto on InfoHome or Site Layout or Site Map or Site Index or Quick Jumps or Search Engine Directory or The MartAuto News, Analysis and Editorial The January 2008 U.S. Automobile Sales Statistics: As Hyundai Clobbers GM in Quality, GM Clobbers Hyundai in Sales; Overall, the U.S. Consumer Trek to Quality and Out of Big Three Products Slows to the Leisurely Stroll of the Mid-1990s

AutoOnInfo.net February 2008

The January 2008 U.S. Automobile Sales Statistics: As Hyundai Clobbers GM in Quality, GM Clobbers Hyundai in Sales; Overall, the U.S. Consumer Trek to Quality and Out of Big Three Products Slows to the Leisurely Stroll of the Mid-1990s

By James B. Bleeker

Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of .89, saw its U.S. auto sales fall 2% in January 2008, over those of January 2007. Its January U.S. car sales fell 6%, but its U.S. light truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 2%.

The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of January 2008 and year-to-date, together with 1999-2003 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages.

Table I: Toyota Motor Corporation's January 2008 U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, TMC's Year-to-Date 2008 U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, and 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank Averages, for Manufacturer, Line, and Model

Manu-facturer Divi-sion Type of Vehicle Model and (distinctions) January 2008 Unit Sales Volume Percent-age Change for January 2008 from January 2007 The 2008 Year-to-Date Unit Sales Volume The 2008 Year-to-Date Percent-age Change 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank Average

Toyota Motor Corporation 171,849 -2.3% 171,849 -2.3% .89

Scion Division 7,872 -12.6% 7,872 -12.6% N/A¹⁵

xA (R05, R08, RA08) 9 -99.5% 9 -99.5% N/A¹⁶

xB (R05, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, GW07) 3,319 17.2% 3,319 17.2% N/A¹⁷

tC (GB08) 2,947 -33.2% 2,947 -33.2% N/A

xD (RA08) 1,597 N/A 1,597 N/A N/A

Toyota Division 143,678 -0.7% 143,678 -0.7% .88

Passenger Car 75,537 -2.8% 75,537 -2.8% N/A

Avalon (GB08, GS07, GC07) 4,155 -36.4% 4,155 -36.4% .95

Camry (AL07, GB08, 4-cyl.: R05, R06, RV07, RA08, 4-cyl. hybrid: R08, RA08, GD07, 6-cyl. Solara: RA08) 31,601⁸ 0.4% 31,601 0.4% .93,.88, .92,.85¹⁰

Corolla (R05, R06, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, RV07, AL07, 5-spd manual: GD07, Matrix: R08, RA08) 20,736 -18.7% 20,736 -18.7% .93

Prius (CL07, T05, T06, T07, R05, R06, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, RV07, GT07, GD07, GW07, GS07, GC07) 11,379 37.1% 11,379 37.1% .91

Yaris² (R05, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, RV07, 5-spd manual: GD07) 7,666 30.6% 7,666 30.6% .97¹⁸

Light Truck 68,141 1.6% 68,141 1.6% N/A

RAV4 (SUV) (CL07, T07, R05, R06, R07, GB08, 4-cyl.: R08, RA08, RV07, RIT) 10,897 -8.6% 10,897 -8.6% .97¹⁹

Sienna (minivan) (T07, R08, GB08, GS07) 10,406 -4.1% 10,406 -4.1% .83²⁰

Highlander (mid-size SUV) (CL07, R05, R06, R07, R08, GB08, GS07, 4-cyl.: GW07, 6-cyl.: RA08, RV07, hybrid: T06, T07) 12,323⁹ 19.4% 12,323 19.4% .99¹¹

FJ Cruiser (SUV) (R07) 3,071 -37.9% 3,071 -37.9% N/A

4Runner (SUV) (CL07, R07, R08, RA08, GB08, 6-cyl.: RV07, GS07) 5,470 -25.4% 5,470 -25.4% .93¹²

Sequoia (large SUV) (GB08) 2,377 15.5% 2,377 15.5% .68

Land Cruiser (large SUV) (CL07, R05, R06, R08, GB08, RV07, RIT) 460 96.6% 460 96.6% .94

Tundra (pickup truck) (R05, R06, GB08, 6-cyl.: GW07, GS07, GC07, 8-cyl. 2wd: R08) 12,073 91.0% 12,073 91.0% .86¹³

Tacoma (pickup truck) (AL07², 4-cyl.: R08, V6: RIT) 11,064 -15.3% 11,064 -15.3% .93¹⁴

Lexus Division 20,299 -8.2% 20,299 -8.2% .91

Passenger Car 11,177 -17.7% 11,177 -17.7% N/A

ES (CL07, T07A, R07, RV07, GB08, RIT) 4,346 -18.3% 4,346 -18.3% .96

LS (CL07, T05, R05, R06, R07, RA08, GB08, RV07, RIT) 1,906⁷ -36.6% 1,906 -36.6% .99

GS (R06, 450h: R08, RA08, GB08) 1,480⁶ -4.6% 1,480 -4.6% .97³

SC (hardtop convertible) (R05, R06, R07, RA08, GB08) 183 -39.4% 183 -39.4% .88¹

IS (R05, R06, R08, GB08) 3,262⁴ -3.9% 3,262 -3.9% .94

Light Truck 9,122 6.8% 9,122 6.8% N/A

RX (SUV) (T05, R08, RA08, GB08, RIT, GS07) 6,755⁵ 3.2% 6,755 3.2% .95

GX (SUV) (GB08) 1,657 -3.3% 1,657 -3.3% .78¹

LX (large SUV) (R05, RA08) 710 147.4% 710 147.4% .84

Note: Percentage changes are daily selling rate percentage changes from previous year's version of the model, and Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon.

¹Based on data for 2 or fewer model years

²Includes data for preceding model number

³The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of the GS is .97 and that of the V6 rear-wheel-drive GS is .90.

⁴The January 2008 sales breakdown of the IS 250 and the IS 350 was unstated.

⁵The Lexus RX 350 had January sales of 5,544 (up 4.6%) and the hybrid RX 400h - 1,211 (down 2.7%).

⁶The Lexus GS 350 had January sales of 1,270 (down 7.2%); the GS 460 and the hybrid GS 450h had combined sales of 210 (up 14.8%).

⁷The Lexus LS 460/460 L had January sales of 1,801 (down 40.1%) and the hybrid LS 600h - 105 (new).

⁸The non-hybrid Camry had January sales of 27,851 (down 2.8%) and the Camry Hybrid - 3,750 (up 33.9%).

⁹The non-hybrid Highlander had January sales of 10,180 (up 19.6%) and the Highlander Hybrid - 2,143 (up 18.4%).

¹⁰The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of the 4-cylinder Camry is .93, that of the V6 Camry is .88, that of the Camry Solara is .92, and that of the V6 Camry Solara is .85. However, it should be noted that the V6 Camry Solara's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is only .47, a disaster for a Toyota product, but very much above average for a Big Three product.

¹¹The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 Highlander.

¹²This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 4Runner.

¹³The 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V8 Tundra.

¹⁴This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the V6 Tacoma.

¹⁵The Scion line's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank average (based on only one year of data) is .88.

¹⁶The Scion xA's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is .90.

¹⁷The Scion xB's early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is .86.

¹⁸This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is that of the Echo, the Yaris' less refined predecessor.

¹⁹This 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average is for the 4-cylinder RAV4.

²⁰Advisory: While the 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank of the Toyota Sienna is .83, the early 2004 Reliability Percentrank (based on only one year of data) is only .54 and that of the all-wheel-drive Toyota Sienna is even worse - .31, both surprisingly bad for Toyota (but excellent when compared with Big Three minivan Percentranks).

T05 denotes a Consumer Reports 2005 Top Pick, T06 - a CR 2006 Top Pick, T07 - a CR 2007 Top Pick, T05 - a CR 2005 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T06 - a CR 2006 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T07 - a CR 2007 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T05A - a CR 2005 Top Pick alternate, T06A - a CR 2006 Top Pick alternate, and T07A - a CR 2007 Top Pick alternate.

R05 denotes that Consumer Reports accorded the 2005 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, R06 - that CR accorded the 2006 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, R07 - that CR accorded the 2007 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, and R08 - that CR accorded the 2008 model its highest predicted short-term reliability.

RV07 denotes a best model by CR's 2007 Reliability Verdicts.

RA08 denotes a 2008 best model by CR's Reliability-Verdict history from the 5 most-recent model years.

GB08 denotes a CR 2008 Good Bet.

RIT denotes a top-ten model by the 2007 Reliability Index.

CL07 denotes a Consumer Reports 2007 best bet "for the long run," i.e., a good candidate for a long distance runner.

AL07 denotes a model with 5 or more listings on AOI's 300,000+ mile roster. The Toyota Tacoma pickup and its predecessor, the Toyota Pickup, have a pooled count.

GT07 denotes that it is one of two current models that have reduced exhaust emissions sufficiently to receive a permit to use the car pool lanes on Arizona's freeways. (See "Cleaning Arizona Air: The Exclusive Three," Auto on Info, March 2007.)

GD07 denotes that the model, or specified edition of the model, is on GreenerCars.com's top dozen green cars.

GW07 denotes that the model, or specified edition of the model, is best in category on global warming performance, by the Union of Concerned Scientists, GS07 denotes best in category on smog performance, and GC07 denotes best in category on combined environmental performance. (See "By Yet Another Quality Measure, Toyota and Honda Are Best and GM and DaimlerChrysler - Worst: The UCS 2007 Environmental Report," Auto on Info, April 2007.)

To view a table providing Toyota's models on Consumer Reports' list of 2007 models having the highest predicted short-term reliability, go to "By CR's Predicted Short-Term Reliability for Model Year 2007, Toyota and Honda Dominate Best and GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler Dominate Worst, per Detroit News Table," Auto on Info, November 2006.

In January 2008, Toyota Motor Corporation reported sales in the U.S. of 18,652 hybrid vehicles, up 30.2% over January 2007. The Toyota division had sales of 17,272 hybrids (up 34%), and the Lexus division had sales of 1,380 hybrids (down 4%).

The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in January 2008 over January 2007 were the Lexus LX 570 large sport-utility vehicle, up 147.4% to 710, the Toyota Land Cruiser large sport-utility vehicle, up 96.6% to 460, the Toyota Tundra large pickup truck, up 91.0% to 12,073, the original hybrid Toyota Prius, up 37.1% to 11,379, the Toyota Camry Hybrid family sedan, up 33.9% to 3,750, the Toyota Yaris small car, up 30.6% to 7,666, the non-hybrid Toyota Highlander midsize sport-utility vehicle, up 19.6% to 10,180, the Toyota Highlander Hybrid midsize sport-utility vehicle, up 18.4% to 2,143, the Scion xB wagon, up 17.2% to 3,319, the Toyota Sequoia large sport-utility vehicle, up 15.5% to 2,377, the Lexus GS 460/450h, up 14.8% to 210, and the Lexus RX 350, up 4.6% to 5,544.

Toyota's Hottest Sellers in January 2008

Lexus LX 570 Toyota Land Cruiser Toyota Tundra

Toyota Prius Toyota Camry Hybrid Toyota Yaris

Toyota Highlander Toyota Highlander Hybrid Scion xB

Toyota Sequoia Lexus GS 450h Lexus RX 350

The above photos are of the 2008 models and the above links are to onsite review pages of the 2007 models.

The Toyota Prius, up 37.1% for the month, is Toyota's original gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the post-2004 editions is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the post-2004 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.¹ In short, the post-2004 editions of the Prius are a bigger car with better gas mileage than its pre-2004 editions. Third, the Prius is a Consumer Reports 2005 Top Pick (green car category), a CR 2006 Top Pick (green car category), a CR 2007 Top Pick (green car category), a CR 2007 Long-Run Pick, a recipient of a CR's 2007 and 2008 "Most Reliable" rating for predicted short-term reliability, a recipient of a CR's 2007 highest ownership satisfaction rating for predicted short-term satisfaction, a recipient of a CR's 2007 highest crash protection rating, a UCS 2007 Best on Global Warming Performance in midsize car category, a UCS 2007 Best on Smog Performance in midsize car category, a UCS 2007 Best on Combined Environmental Performance in midsize car category, one of Arizona's two "green cars" for car pool lane usage, and No. 2 on GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen, and a CR 2008 Good Bet.

The likelihood of finding a new made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX350 on a U.S. dealer lot is not good; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 99.9% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. in January 2008 were made in North America, 96.7% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. in January 2008 were made in North America, and 84.5% of the RX350s sold in the U.S. in January 2008 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX350 is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2007 Toyota Avalon are without any hope, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America. Currently, all Yaris sold in the U.S. are made abroad; however, Toyota plans North American production of this model, so it may behoove U.S. consumers eyeing the Yaris to buy it within the next two years. To ascertain whether a vehicle is made in Japan, check the first alphanumeric in the vehicle's identification number; if it is a J, the vehicle was made in Japan.

Honda Motor Company, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .84, saw its January 2008 U.S. auto sales rise a fraction of one percent. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in January 2008 over January 2007 were the Honda Fit small car (Auto on Info's Top Car Pick of 2007, a 2007 CR Top Pick in Budget Car category, and a 2007 CR All-Around-Ability Budget-Car Quick Pick, with a 2007 and 2008 predicted short-term reliability in CR's highest category, a 2007 ownership-satisfaction rating in CR's highest category, a 2007 accident-avoidance rating in CR's second-highest category, and a 2007 crash-protection rating in CR's highest category; also, the manual transmission edition is No. 8 on GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen), up 120.0% to 4,480, the non-hybrid editions of the Honda Civic (a 2007 CR Top Pick in Small Sedan category, a CR 2008 Good Bet, with a 2008 predicted short-term reliability in CR's highest category and with the EX accorded a 2007 predicted short-term reliability in CR's second-highest category, a 2007 ownership-satisfaction rating in CR's highest category and a 2007 accident avoidance rating in CR's second-highest category, with the automatic transmission version of the DX, LX, and EX sedan placing within GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen, and with the natural gas GX edition placing No. 1 on GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen), up 16.0% to 19,248, and the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle (with a 1999-2003 RPA of .96 and a CR 2006 comfort-versatility-and-snow-traction Quick Pick, a CR 2007 All-Around-Competence Quick Pick, a 2007 CR Top Pick runner-up, a CR 2007 Long-Run Pick, a recipient of CR's 2007 highest rating for predicted short-term reliability, a recipient of CR's 2007 second-highest rating for predicted short-term ownership satisfaction, a recipient of CR's 2007 second-highest accident avoidance rating by road test performance, a recipient of CR's 2007 highest crash protection rating, a best motor vehicle model by CR's 2007 Reliability Verdicts, a CR 2008 Good Bet, and a top ten by the 2007 Reliability Index), up 11.3% to 16,016.

Honda's Hottest Sellers in January 2008

Honda Fit Honda Civic DX, LX, and EX Sedans Honda Civic Si Sedan

Honda Civic GX Honda CR-V

The above photos are of the 2008 models and the above links are to onsite review pages of the 2007 models.

The Honda Fit, the Honda Civic sedans, the Honda Civic Si, and the Honda CR-V are on the list of Best Cars and Trucks of 2008 by CR Reliability-Verdict History for the 5 Most-Recent Model Years.

Through January 2008, the Toyota Sienna minivan outsold the Honda Odyssey by 1,660 vehicles, or 19.0%, but the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 5,119 vehicles, or 47.0%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1999-2003 RPA of .96 and a CR 2007 and 2008 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1999-2003 RPA of .97 (4-cylinder) and a CR 2007 and 2008 (4-cylinder) predicted short-term reliability in the highest category. Also, both the 4-cylinder Toyota RAV4 and the Honda CR-V are on the list of Best Cars and Trucks of 2008 by CR Reliability-Verdict History for the 5 Most-Recent Model Years and are CR 2008 Good Bets. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, neither the Honda Odyssey nor the Toyota Sienna have fared well recently relative to other Honda and Toyota products (although the 2008 Toyota Sienna has a predicted short-term reliability in CR's highest category per CR's website and in CR's second-highest category per its publication Cars: Best and Worst for '08 and both the Odyssey and the Sienna are CR 2008 Good Bets), but have fared excellently relative to Big Three alternatives, as the following table helps demonstrate.

Reliability Scores, Percentranks and Grades of the 2003 Toyota Sienna Minivan and the Honda Odyssey Minivan and Minivan Alternatives

Model Reliability Score Reliability Percentrank Reliability Grade

Toyota Sienna .50 .73 C-

Honda Odyssey .50 .73 C-

General Motors' regular Chevrolet Venture Van .35 .57 F

Chrysler's 2-wheel-drive V6 Dodge Grand Caravan .12 .43 F

General Motors' regular Pontiac Montana Van .04 .37 F

Chrysler's V6 Dodge Caravan -.02 .32 F

Chrysler V6 Voyager -.07 .26 F

Ford Windstar -.14 .17 F

General Motors' Chevrolet Astro Van -.45 .03 F

General Motors' GMC Safari Van -.45 .03 F

Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1999-2003 RPA of .77, saw its January 2008 U.S. auto sales fall 7%.

Nissan Motor Company, with a 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of .70, saw its January 2008 U.S. auto sales fall 7%. Its car sales fell 7% and its light truck sales fell 8%. Sales by its luxury Infiniti division, with a 1999-2003 Reliability Percentrank average of .81, fell 4%; sales of Infiniti cars fell 4%, and sales of Infiniti SUVs fell 1%.

Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .66, saw its January 2008 U.S. auto sales rise 10%.

Overall, the January 2008 U.S. sales by the auto manufacturers of higher quality products were not bad. January sales by the Reliable Two held rather steady (down 2%) and Mazda sales rose 10%.

At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .31 and with the distinction of again being the dominant manufacturer on both CR's 2008 least reliable list and CR's 2008 least satisfying list, saw January 2008 U.S. unit sales of its domestic lines rise 3%, with hefty incentives.

The following chart depicts the percentage of GM models, with a CR Reliability-Verdict history of one or more model years, that are among the Worst of 2008, for each of the lines of General Motors.

GM's January 2008 sales suggest that GM's marketing folks may be able to sell to GM's customer base arsenic as an aphrodisiac and plutonium as a decongestant; however, it may simply be that GM is just reaping the rewards of manufacturing vehicles that require speedy rotation due to speedy dilapidation.

Chrysler LLC, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .38, saw its January 2008 U.S. auto sales plunge 12%, despite hefty incentives.

The following chart depicts the percentage of models, with a CR Reliability-Verdict history of one or more model years, that are among the Worst of 2008, for each of the lines of Chrysler.

Ford Motor Company, with a 1999-2003 RPA of .50, saw its January 2008 U.S. unit sales of its domestic lines fall 3%, despite hefty incentives.

The 2008 year-to-date U.S. market shares of the Reliable Two, the Big Three, Nissan, and Hyundai changed some from the 2007 U.S. market share. Honda, Hyundai and Ford were down a notch and GM was up a notch. The following table provides the 2008 year-to-date U.S. market shares, as well as historical shares and the estimated natural market shares, of this group of seven.

Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, and Year-to-Date 2008, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993

Manu- facturer
1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Year-to-Date 2008 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993

Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .13 .16 .16 .23 .07 .09

Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .09 .10 .09 .14 .05 .06

Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .07 .07 .16 .09 N/A

Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .03 .03 .02 .05 .03 N/A

GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .26 .23 .24 .04 -.20 -.10

Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .17 .15 .14 .07 -.07 -.12

Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .14 .13 .13 .00 -.13 -.02

*The Estimate of Natural Market Share for each manufacturer, save Hyundai, is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts.
Hyundai's Natural Market Share Estimate is based on (1) its 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average relative to GM's and (2) its product prices relative to those of GM. A different method of estimating the Natural Market Share of Hyundai is used as its reliability has notably improved since the late 1980s, but still does not significantly differ from GM's.
GM's market share is that without the sales by its Saab division, Ford's market share is that without the sales by its Jaguar, Land Rover, and Volvo divisions, and Hyundai's market share is that without the sales by its Kia division.

Note that Ford has made good progress toward its natural market share estimate, while GM and Chrysler are laggards.

The following charts help depict the U.S. consumers' historical gait to quality and out of Big Three products.