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AutoOnInfo.net
November 2007
The 2007 Reliability-Durability Updates: Toyota Age-Equivalent Estimates: Estimates of When a Typical 1999 Model of Toyota Motor Corporation Will Be as Troublesome as Typical 1999 Models of General Motors Corporation and Its Several Marques Were Circa 3 Years, 4 Years, ..., and 7 Years of Age
By James B. Bleeker
We begin with the following table of
Reliability Score averages for model year 1999.
Next, we plot the Reliability Score
averages of Toyota Motor Corporation for each of the above age ranges
(2-to-4 years, 3-to-5 years, ..., 4-to-6 years) and make an
extrapolation of these plots, a linear regression of degree one. We will
first determine an estimate of when a typical 1999 model of Toyota Motor
Corporation will be as troublesome as a typical 1999 model of General
Motors Corporation at about age 3 years. To do this, we plot GM's
Reliability Score average for the first age range (2-to-4 years) and
draw a horizontal line. For the x-axis, we use the midpoint of each age
range. We have:
The equation on the chart is the
regression equation for Toyota's extrapolation. From the chart's
extrapolation, we see the estimate of when a typical 1999 Toyota model
may be as troublesome as a typical 1999 GM model circa age 3 years to be
about 19 years. By computation, substituting GM's rounded Reliability
Score average of .27 (for age range 2-to-4 years) for y in Toyota's
regression equation, we obtain an estimate of 19.0 years. Another way of
viewing the result is: If a typical 1999 GM vehicle became unacceptable
to own by reason of trouble or risk of trouble at about 3 years old
(calendar year 2002 or earlier), then a typical 1999 Toyota vehicle may
become unacceptable to own at about age 19.0 years, or circa calendar
year 2018.
The next four charts depict similarly
derived estimates of age equivalents (with respect to vehicular
deterioration) for a typical 1999 model of Toyota corresponding to
approximate ages 4 years, 5 years, 6 years, and 7 years of a typical
1999 GM model.
From the charts, we see that the
estimates of when a typical 1999 Toyota model may be as troublesome as a
typical 1999 GM model at about ages 4 years, 5 years, 6 years, and 7 years
are about 22 years, 25 years, 29 years, and 33 years, respectively. By
computation, substituting GM's rounded Reliability Score averages for y
in Toyota's regression equation, we obtain the following estimates of
when a typical 1999 Toyota model will be as troublesome as a typical
1999 GM model
at ages 4 years, 5 years, 6 years, and 7 years: 22.4 years, 25.5 years,
29.4 years, and 33.1 years, respectively.
Note that each succeeding chart
requires an extrapolation farther into the future and consequently each
succeeding age-equivalent estimate is less certain.
For reference, the next chart helps
depict respective rates of vehicular deterioration for Toyota Motor
Company and General Motors Corporation for model year 1999.
By substituting the Reliability Score
averages for each of GM's marques into Toyota's regression equation, we
obtain the following table of Toyota age-equivalent estimates, rounded
to the nearest whole year.
The next table provides Toyota
age-equivalent estimates in calendar years.
For reference, we provide a more
comprehensive table of Toyota age-equivalent estimates, which includes
all manufacturers with sizable sales in 1999, and their marques.
For comparison, last year's
age-equivalent table for model year 1998 is provided below.
Note that the dilapidation of General
Motors' vehicles has changed little from that of the preceding year,
relative to the bar set by Toyota.
Source: AutoOnInfo.net data
banks
|
Related Articles |
|
September 2007: The 2007 Reliability-Durability Updates: Toyota and Honda Account for 4 of the 5 Most Durable Vehicle Lines; General Motors - 5 of 10 Worst: Will a Typical 1999 Toyota or Honda Model Be More Trouble Free at about 20 Years of Age Than a Typical 1999 GM Model at 3? |
|
September 2007:
Toyota and Honda Account for All of
Consumer Reports' 2007 Long-Run Good Bets |
|
August 2007:
The 2007 Reliability-Durability Updates: For Vehicles 2-to-3 Years Old, Toyota and Honda Account for 14 of 16 Best, GM - 18 of 57 Worst |
|
August 2007:
The 2007 Reliability-Durability Updates: For Vehicles 2-to-4 Years Old, Toyota and Honda Account for 14 of 19 Best, GM - 22 of 62 Worst |
|
August 2007:
The 2007 Reliability-Durability Updates: For Vehicles 3-to-5 Years Old, Toyota and Honda Account for 18 of 19 Best, GM - 24 of 61 Worst |
|
July 2007:
The 2007 Reliability-Durability Updates: For Vehicles 4-to-6 Years Old, Toyota and Honda Account for 17 of 17 Best, GM - 24 of 56 Worst: Will a Typical Toyota at 13 Years of Age Be as Troublesome as a Typical GM at 3 Years of Age? |
|
July 2007:
The 2007 Reliability-Durability Updates: For Vehicles 5-to-7 Years Old, Toyota and Honda Account for 12 of 13 Best, GM - 19 of 48 Worst: Will a Typical Toyota at 21 Years of Age Be as Troublesome as a Typical GM at 3 Years of Age? |
|
July 2007:
The 2007 Reliability-Durability Updates: For Vehicles 6-to-8 Years Old, Toyota and Honda Account for 13 of 13 Best, GM - 18 of 43 Worst: Will a Typical Toyota at 19 Years of Age Be as Troublesome as a Typical GM at 3 Years of Age? |
|
July 2007:
The 2007 Reliability-Durability Updates: For Vehicles 7-to-9 Years Old, Toyota and Honda Account for 11 of 12 Best, GM - 22 of 41 Worst: Will a Typical Toyota at 30 Years of Age Be as Troublesome as a Typical GM at 3 Years of Age? |
|
November 2006: The 2006 Updates: Toyota Age-Equivalent Estimates: Estimates of When a Typical 1998 Model of Toyota Motor Corporation Will Be as Troublesome as Typical 1998 Models of General Motors Corporation and Its Several Marques Were Circa 3 Years, 4 Years, ..., and 7 Years of Age |
|
September 2006: Reliability Updates: Toyota and Honda Still Tops, But Lose Luster; General Motors Still Worst of Major Auto Manufacturers; Hyundai Clobbers GM Yet Again |
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September 2006: Reliability Updates: Best and Worst Cars and Trucks Tables: A Chart Summary |
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August 2006: Reliability Updates: For Vehicles 6-to-8 Years Old, Toyota Accounts for 7 of 10 Best, GM - 17 of 36 Worst |
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August 2006: Reliability Updates: For Vehicles 5-to-7 Years Old, Toyota Accounts for 9 of 13 Best, GM - 17 of 42 Worst |
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August 2006: Reliability Updates: For Vehicles 4-to-6 Years Old, Toyota Accounts for 8 of 14 Best, GM - 19 of 47 Worst |
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August 2006: Reliability Updates: For Vehicles 3-to-5 Years Old, Toyota Accounts for 13 of 15 Best, GM - 17 of 47 Worst |
|
August 2006: Reliability Updates: For Model Year 2002, Toyota Accounts for 11 of 16 Best, GM - 16 of 53 Worst |
The following poll permits the reader to express his assessment on
General Motors Corporation.
To view responses to the above poll,
click here.
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