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The 2007
Reliability-Durability Updates: Toyota and Honda Account for 4 of the 5 Most Durable Vehicle Lines; General Motors -
5 of 10 Worst: Will a Typical 1999 Toyota or Honda Model Be More Trouble Free at about 20 Years of Age Than a Typical 1999 GM Model at 3?
Auto on Info September 2007
The 2007 Reliability-Durability Updates: Toyota and Honda Account for 4 of the 5 Most Durable Vehicle Lines; General Motors - 5 of 10 Worst: Will a Typical 1999 Toyota or Honda Model Be More Trouble Free at about 20 Years of Age Than a Typical 1999 GM Model at 3?
By James B. Bleeker
The following table and charts summarize the durability of the 1999 motor vehicle models by Toyota Motor Corporation and Honda Motor Company, as measured by the Reliability Score. Our first table provides five sets of Reliability Score averages for the auto manufacturers and motor vehicle lines for which data are available, together with the change in the averages from the first set to the last set. The first set is for when the 1999 vehicles were between the ages of 2 and 4 years and the last set is for when the 1999 vehicles were between the ages of 6 and 8 years.
Note that the Reliability Score averages for Toyota's and Honda's lines at the age range 6-to-8 years substantially exceeds the averages for the lines of the Big Three - General Motors Corporation, Ford Motor Company, and the Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler AG - at the age range of 2-to-4 years.
The following chart depicts the above changes in Reliability Score averages for each of the auto manufacturers.
Suzuki Motor Corporation has only one or two models providing data each year and sales of any one model are relatively small; consequently, the change in its Reliability Score average may be less accurate and is more subject to change. Subaru's placement in the above chart is low by historical standards. The plunge in this year's Reliability Score averages from the 2-to-4-year range to the 6-to-8-year range for General Motors Corporation and the Chrysler Group are nearly identical to those of the previous year. Note that Volvo continues to be an albatross hung about Ford's neck.
The next chart depicts the changes in Reliability Score averages for each of the motor vehicle lines.
The next chart depicts the Reliability Score averages for each of the motor vehicle lines for the age range 6-to-8 years.
Here we see that Toyota's and Honda's lines occupy 4 of the top 5 positions and GM lines occupy 5 of the bottom 10 positions. Note that in 1999 GM's Saturn line had not yet sunk to the depths of GM's other lines; however, by 2000 Saturn's Reliability Percentrank average was about on par with that of GM's Chevrolet line and by 2002 - even less than that of its Chevrolet line.
One of the interesting questions is: When will a typical 1999 Toyota model be as troublesome as a typical 1999 General Motors model at ages 2-to-4 years? The following chart helps shed some light on this query.
This chart suggests that a typical 1999 Toyota model may, at about 18 years old, be more reliable than a typical 1999 General Motors model at about 3 years old, although a used-car buyer should be very hesitant in relying entirely on the accuracy of such a long-term extrapolation and should always be cognizant of the possibility that one or more previous owners or users may have abused a vehicle in one or more significant ways. For additional durability information, see the durability pages. Also, for some advisories, see Cautionary Remarks.
The next chart helps shed light on the query: When will a typical 1999 Honda model be as troublesome as a typical 1999 General Motors model at ages 2-to-4 years?
This chart suggests that a typical 1999 Honda model may, at about 26 years old, be more reliable than a typical 1999 General Motors model at about 3 years old, subject to the same caveats noted above.
Some interesting remaining queries are: How have the extrapolations of the two preceding charts changed, if at all, in more recent years? As the data accumulate, will an extrapolation of the extrapolation intersections give us a good indication as to whether a typical 2010 Toyota or Honda model at age 20 years may be more reliable than a typical GM model at age 3 years?
With regard to the latter query, it would be very useful if Consumer Reports were to extend its questionnaire and reliability table coverage to at least 12 years from its current 10 years.
Sources: Auto on Info data banks
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To view responses to the above poll, click here.
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