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The
J.D. Power Surveys: Gleaning Values from Things That May Be Worth, Individually,
Something Close to Nothing: GM in the Dumps Again
Auto on Info June 2007
The J.D. Power Surveys: Gleaning Values from Things That May Be Worth, Individually, Something Close to Nothing: GM in the Dumps Again
By James B. Bleeker
The J.D. Power and Associates automobile surveys annually query owners for all complaints, from grand to small, that he or she has regarding his or her motor vehicle and dutifully records the responses, including those that are arguably of a more trivial nature, for example, shortcomings that should have been evident before purchase, such as knob accessibility, instrument viewability, and low gas mileage for the Hummer. The complaints are compiled and averages are calculated for the major lines of vehicles - Acura, Audi, BMW, Buick, etc.
Two such automobile surveys are reported each year, one covering the first 90 days of ownership and the other covering the first 3 years of ownership. On June 6th, this year's 90-day survey results were released.
We begin with the observation that any survey that queries owners regarding all complaints he or she has with his or her vehicle seems likely to produce results that are of dubious value to the consumer. Visitors have expressed this thought in less-than-generous terms.
Next, we construct a chart comparing the results of the 90-day survey released in 2007 with those of the 90-day survey released in 2006. To do this, for each year, we subtract each line's average complaint frequency (average number of complaints) from the largest such average for the year. We then divide each difference by the greatest difference. This ascribes values to all of the motor vehicle lines (that are present in the J.D. Power survey results) from 0 to 1, with 1 being the value of the line with the fewest complaints and 0 being the value of the line with the greatest number of complaints. Then, for each of the lines, we plot its 2007 value and 2006 value on a chart that has the 2007 value range on the x-axis and the 2006 value range on the y-axis. We have:
The resulting chart is one reminiscent of those found in psychology texts. The broadly distributed points suggest that the survey is measuring some psychological trait (or complex of traits) of the persons surveyed as much as it is measuring shortcomings of the vehicle that they own. For contrast, we plot the Reliability Percentrank averages of the major motor vehicle lines for model years 2001 and 2002 (the most recent model years for which the averages have been computed using the full complement of data).
What we see is that the data follow closely the regression line, as one would anticipate in a one-year-to-next comparison of motor vehicle lines. (Note that in the bottom half of the spectrum the points become more scattered. There are several possible explanations for this: (1) For the European lines, the sample size is smaller, (2) at the bottom end, the differences between models may not be great, and (3) people who purchase vehicles at the lower end of the spectrum may have lesser mental attributes with lower awareness and weaker recall, thus occasioning a more random distribution for each model year.)
It should be noted that the J.D. power surveys employ a much smaller sample than does the Consumer Reports survey (from which the Reliability Percentranks and Reliability Percentrank averages are derived) and that some part of the contrast between the J.D. Power chart and the Reliability-Percentrank-average chart may be explained by the difference in sample size.
Next, we construct a chart comparing the results of J.D. Power's 3-year survey released in 2006 with those of the 3-year survey released in 2005. The computations for this chart are identical to those for the 90-day chart. We have:
Here, too, the plotted points are quite scattered, but less scattered than in the 90-day chart, suggesting that something more automotive is measured in the 3-year survey.
Next, we compare the results of the 3-year survey released in 2006 with the results of the 90-day survey released in 2004.
The widely scattered plotted points suggest that something quite different is measured by the two surveys.
The above charts point in the direction that if anything of value to the consumer is to be gleaned from J.D. Power automobile surveys, some composite results from more than one year for both the 90-day and 3-year surveys must usually be assembled. Here, to assist consumers with more mentionable standards, we take the intersection of the sets of the 10 lines that had the smallest average number of complaints (lowest average complaint frequency) in (1) the 90-day survey results released in 2007, (2) the 90-day survey results released in 2006, (3) the 3-year survey results released in 2006, and (4) the 3-year survey results released in 2005, i.e., the two most recent survey results for the two time periods surveyed by J.D. Power and Associates. This leaves us with the following lines:
Lexus Toyota Honda Infiniti, from best to better by average rank for the four surveys.
To test the adequacy of the selection process, we examine the ranks by Reliability Percentrank average of these J.D. Power top four lines for the five most recent model years for which Reliability Percentrank averages have been computed. These ranks are given in the following table.
Table I: The Reliability-Percentrank-Average Ranks of J.D. Power's Top Four Lines for Model Years 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Lexus 1 1 1 1 1 Toyota 2 4 2 2 3 Honda 2 2 3 3 2 Infiniti 2 5 3 3 4 The next table compares the J.D. Power ranks of its top four lines and the ranks of these four lines by the 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank averages.
Table II: J.D. Power Ranks for Its Top Four Lines and the Ranks of These Four Lines by the 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank Average J.D. Power Rank 1998-2002-Reliability-Percentrank-Average Rank Lexus 1 1 Toyota 2 2 Honda 3 3 Infiniti 4 4 The ranks are identical and we have a technique for gleaning consumer value from J.D. Power survey results, although the technique must be tested over several years to ensure adequacy.
Finally, we observe that by the 2007 results of J.D. Power's 90-day survey, all lines of General Motors Corporation - Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, and Saturn - fall below the industry average. Even if this survey measures as much a psychological trait of the owners surveyed as something regarding automotive quality, the unanimity of the results suggests that GM is not a manufacturer to be on a consumer's first-second-and-third-choice list, irrespective of how modest or diminutive the consumer's standards may be.
Source for J.D. Power and Associates 2007 90-day automobile survey results: http://www.jdpower.com/press-releases/pressrelease.aspx?id=2007088
Source for J.D. Power and Associates 2006 90-day automobile survey results: http://www.jdpower.com/corporate/news/releases/pressrelease.aspx?id=2006082
Source for J.D. Power and Associates 2004 90-day automobile survey results: http://www.jdpower.com/corporate/news/releases/pressrelease.aspx?id=2004037
Source for J.D. Power and Associates 2006 3-year automobile survey results: http://www.jdpower.com/corporate/news/releases/pressrelease.aspx?id=2006133
Source for J.D. Power and Associates 2005 3-year automobile survey results: http://www.jdpower.com/corporate/news/releases/pressrelease.aspx?id=2005089
Source for Reliability Percentrank averages: Auto on Info's Table II-MVRP
The following poll permits the reader to express his assessment on General Motors Corporation.
To view responses to the above poll, click here.
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