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The 2007 U.S. Auto Market Share Predictions for Toyota Motor Corporation and the Big Three
By James B. Bleeker
We begin with last year's predictions. The following table provides these, together with 2006 and 2005 U.S. market shares.
Auto on Info's 2006 U.S. Auto Market Share Predictions, the 2006 U.S. Auto Market Shares, the 2005 U.S. Auto Market Shares, and the Change in Market Shares from 2005 to 2006 Manufacturer 2006 Predictions 2006 U.S. Market Share 2005 U.S. Market Share Change in U.S. Market Share Toyota Motor Corporation .14 .15 .13 +.02 Ford Motor Company .16 .16 .17 -.01 Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler AG .13 .13 .14 -.01 General Motor Corporation .24 .24 .26 -.02 Next, site manager offers these assessments:
(1) December sales changes are a pretty good guide to sales changes for the following year. By these, the final 2007 U.S. auto market shares and changes would be:
Projected 2007 U.S. Auto Market Shares and Changes Based on December 2006's Month-over-Month Sales Changes Manufacturer Projected 2007 Market Share Projected Change in U.S. Market Share Toyota Motor Corporation .18 +.03 Ford Motor Company .15 -.01 Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler AG .13 0.0 General Motor Corporation .22 -.02 (2) The rapid U.S. consumer shift to quality has placed strain on Toyota's short-term production capacity.
(3) Steve Harris, the former vice-president of General Motors Corporation who was resuscitated by GM's CEO to quash the constant drumbeat of negative news, per the Detroit Free Press, appears to be doing a good job of curtailing public access to bad news.
(4) Media explanations for the straits in which GM finds itself often seem so fantastic as to suggest that someone has spent hours, if not days, conjuring them up and yet are so inviting in a way that the biggest bonehead in your high school class would latch onto one and cling to it as an old dog to a bone. However, while GM executives, or apologetic analysts or reporters, may think that GM's remaining customers are boneheads, more likely is that at least 10% have neurons that fire and fire sequentially.
On balance, site manager's predictions of 2007 U.S. auto market shares are as follows:
Auto on Info's Predictions of 2007 U.S. Auto Market Shares and Changes Manufacturer 2007 Predictions Change in U.S. Market Share Toyota Motor Corporation .17 +.02 Ford Motor Company .15 -.01 Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler AG .13 0.0 General Motor Corporation .22 -.02 These predictions mean that the quickened pace of U.S. consumers to quality and out of Big Three products should continue for the next year, but at a pace that is less blistering.
For perspective, these predictions are put into a table providing historical U.S. market shares and estimated natural market shares.
Table I: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, and Year-to-Date 2006, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993
Manu- facturer 1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2006 Predicted 2007 U.S. Market shares Estimate of Natural Market Share* Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .13 .15 .17 .23 Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .17 .16 .15 .07 Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .14 .13 .13 .00 GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .26 .24 .22 .04 *The Estimate of Natural Market Share for each manufacturer is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts.
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