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the U.S. in November 2006, Toyota Sales Soar and Reliable Two Sales Set November
Records, as Big Three Sales Remain Nearly Unchanged and Ford Sales Plunge
Auto on Info December 2006
In the U.S. in November 2006, Toyota Sales Soar and Reliable Two Sales Set November Records, as Big Three Sales Remain Nearly Unchanged and Ford Sales Plunge
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 16% in November 2006, over those of November 2005, to set a new November sales record. Its U.S. car sales rose 14%, and its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 18%. Year to date, Toyota's U.S. cars sales are up 13% and its truck sales are up 12%.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of November 2006, together with 1998-2002 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among July 2006's Hottest Ten, per WSJ's lot-stay time, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
Table I: November 2006 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model Manufacturer Division Type of Vehicle Model Sales Volume Percentage Change for November 2006 from November 2005 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 196,695 15.9% .90 Scion Division 10,769 -8.5% N/A xA 2,204 11.5% N/A xB 3,481 -18.0% N/A tC 5,084 -8.3% N/A Toyota Division 159,207 20.4% .90 Passenger Car 82,201 18.2% N/A Avalon 7,054 -14.2% .89 Camry1v,1r,1f,R6 34,1897 15.1% .889 Corolla1r,R6,2006A 27,015 13.9% .91 Prius*^,1r,1s,R6 8,008 1.5% .861 Yaris 5,936 N/A N/A Light Truck 77,006 22.8% N/A RAV41,1r (SUV) 11,425 156.9% .94 Sienna*,1s,1f,2006A (minivan) 13,535 15.0% .81 Highlander1v,1r,1s,R6,2006A (mid-size SUV) 11,1008 14.7% .991,10 FJ Cruiser (SUV) 5,459 N/A N/A 4Runner1v,1s,R6 (SUV) 7,415 -4.5% .9411 Land Cruiser1r,1s,R6 (large SUV) 282 -23.0% .92 Tundra1r,1s,R6 (pickup truck) 10,469 -3.9% .9412 Tacoma1f (pickup truck) 14,461 4.2% .9413 Lexus Division 26,719 4.2% .92 Passenger Car 16,156 15.4% N/A ES 3501 6,678 44.0% .962 LS 430/460*^,1r,1s,R6 3,613 116.3% .982 GS 300R6 1,664 -25.1% .962,3 GS 430 / 450h 1966 -50.5% .962,3 SC 430R6 (hardtop convertible) 406 -35.4% .851,2 IS 250 / 350 3,5994 -19.1% .911,2 Light Truck 10,563 -9.3% N/A RX 350*^,1,1s,2006A and 400hR6,2006A (SUV) 8,0525 -0.1% .932 GX 4701s (SUV) 2,077 -27.3% N/A LX 470 (large SUV) 434 -40.7% .872 Note: Percentage changes are daily selling rate percentage changes from previous year's version of the model, and Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon. 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The GS 300 and the GS 430 have pooled reliability data and consequently a common Reliability Percentrank. 4The November sales breakdown of the IS series was unstated. 5The RX 350 had November sales of 6,725 and RX 400h - 1,327. 6The November sales breakdown of the GS 430 and the GS 450h was unstated. 7The non-hybrid Camry had November sales of 31,089 and the Camry hybrid - 3,100. 8The non-hybrid Highlander had sales of, 9,433 and the Highlander hybrid - 1,667. 9The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the 4-cylinder Camry is .88, that for the Camry Solara is .90, and that for the V6 Camry is unavailable. 10The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V8 Highlander is .98. 11This 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank is for the V6 4Runner. 12The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V8 Tundra is .86. 13This 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V6 Tacoma is .93. Bold blue script indicates that the model was in July 2006's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction. Underscored script indicates that the model is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick. A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick. A gold caret (^)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 Top Pick. A gold one (1)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, a Quick Pick with very good or excellent ratings in five categories - road performance, predicted reliability, safety (accident avoidance and crash protection), owner satisfaction, and fuel economy. A gold 1v (1v)indicates that a version of the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick. A gold 1r (1r)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick. A gold 1s (1s)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick. A gold 1f (1f)indicates that the model is an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal. A gold R6 (R6)indicates that the 2006 model has received a Consumer Reports predicted short-term reliability rating of "Most Reliable." Additional 2006 models by Toyota Motor Corporation that are on CR's Most Reliable list are the Toyota Echo, the Toyota Matrix wagon, the Lexus IS300, and the Toyota RAV4 small sport utility vehicle. A gold 2006A (2006A) indicates that the 2006 edition is a CR top-of-vehicle-category Quick Pick. In particular, the 2006 Toyota Corolla is a CR 2006 All-Around Competence and Safety Quick Pick, the 2006 Toyota V6 and Hybrid Highlander and the 2006 Lexus RX400h/RX350 are CR 2006 Comfort, Versatility, and Snow Traction Quick Picks, and the 2006 Toyota Sienna is a CR 2006 Minivan Quick Pick. To view a table providing Toyota's models on Consumer Reports' list of 2007 models having the highest predicted short-term reliability, go to "By CR's Predicted Short-Term Reliability for Model Year 2007, Toyota and Honda Dominate Best and GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler Dominate Worst, per Detroit News Table," Auto on Info, November 2006. The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in November 2006 over November 2005 were the Toyota RAV4 small sport-utility vehicle, up 156.9% to 11,425, the Lexus LS 430 / 460, up 116.3% to 3,613, the Lexus ES 350, up 44.0% to 6,678, the Toyota Camry, up 15.1% to 34,189, the Toyota Sienna minivan, up 15.0% to 13,535, the Toyota Highlander sport-utility vehicle, up 14.7% to 11,100, the legendary Toyota Corolla, up 13.9% to 27,015, and the Scion xA, up 11.5% to 2,204.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in November 2006 Toyota RAV4 Lexus LS 430/460 Lexus ES 350 Toyota Camry Solara Toyota Camry XLE Toyota Camry hybrid Toyota Sienna Toyota Highlander Toyota Highlander Hybrid Toyota Corolla Scion xA The above photos are of the 2007 models and the above links are to onsite review pages of the 2006 models. The fact that sales of the Scion line, Toyota's new youth-oriented line, and the Prius, the globally popular hybrid, are down suggests that Toyota's November U.S. sales were constrained by high global demand and limited production capacity.
The Toyota Corolla, up 13.9% in November, is an internationally renowned 40-year legend of reliability, durability (see "Site Manager Replaces Corolla Transmission: 1984 Torque Converter Expires at 478,943 Miles," Auto on Info, June 2005 and "Site Manager's 1984 Corolla Passes 500,000 Mark," Auto on Info, October 2006), and pleasing performance and appearance. As a buyer from Africa at Dubai's mid-eastern auto mart Ducamz put it: Everyone wants one. Indeed, life may not be complete without having owned a Corolla, and life may be appreciably less interesting without having owned the same one for at least 20 years and 400,000 miles.
U.S. sales of the Lexus LX 470 through November 2006 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 67.9%.
The likelihood of finding a 2006 made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla or Camry on a U.S. dealer lot is not good; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 86.3% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. through November 2006 were made in North America and 81.8% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. through November 2006 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla or Toyota Camry is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers seeking a made-in-Japan 2006 Lexus RX are more fortunate, as it appears that North American produced RXs account for only about two-thirds of the U.S. sold RXs. U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2006 Toyota Avalon are without any hope, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America; this may account for their modest predicted short-term reliability. Currently, all Yaris sold in the U.S. are made abroad; however, Toyota plans North American production of this model, so it may behoove U.S. consumers eyeing the Yaris to buy it within the next two years.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .88, saw its November 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 1% to 106,446, to set a new November sales record. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in November 2006 over November 2005 were the Acura TSX sport utility vehicle (too new to have a 1998-2002 RPA, but the 2006 Acura TSX was a 2006 Consumer Reports Sporty-Driving, Agility, and Fun Sedan Quick Pick and had a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second-highest category, a CR 2006 predicted owner satisfaction in the highest category, and a CR 2006 accident avoidance rating in the highest category), up 93.3% to 2,463, the Acura MDX sport utility vehicle (with a 1998-2002 RPA of .79 and a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second-highest category), up 66.8% to 6,086, the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle (with a 1998-2002 RPA of .97 and a CR 2006 comfort-versatility-and-snow-traction Quick Pick, with the 2006 EX edition accorded a CR short-term predicted reliability in the highest category and a CR crash protection rating in the highest category), up 51.1% to 16,242, and the Honda Civic hybrid (a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category, a CR 2006 predicted owner satisfaction in the highest category, and a CR 2006 accident avoidance rating in the second-highest category), up 6.0% to 2,208.
Two of Honda's Hottest Sellers in November 2006 Acura TSX Acura MDX Honda CR-V Honda Civic Hybrid The above photos are of the 2007 models and the above links are to onsite review pages of the 2006 models. Through November 2006, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 14,709 vehicles, or 10.0%, and the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 14,416 vehicles, or 10.4%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1998-2002 RPA of .97 and a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1998-2002 RPA of .94 and a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, the Honda Odyssey has not fared well of late. Its 1999-2002 Reliability Percentrank average is only .70 (in contrast to its 1995-1998 RPA of .965 and in contrast to the Toyota Sienna's 1999-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .825) and Consumer Reports accords its 2006 model year a predicted short-term reliability of only average, something of a disaster for a Honda-engineered product. However, as with the North-American-made Toyota Avalon, only time will tell what the Odyssey's actual short-term (1-to-3-year) reliability, mid-term (4-to-6-year) reliability, and longer term (7-to-8-year) reliability will be.
Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1998-2002 RPA of .75, saw its November 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 9%. Its car sales rose 21%, but its truck sales fell 8%.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .73, saw its November 2006 U.S. auto sales fall 2%.
Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .65, saw its November 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 17%.
Overall, the November 2006 U.S. sales by the auto manufacturers of higher quality products were solid. Toyota and Honda set November sales records, and Subaru and Mazda sales rose 9% and 17%, respectively.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .32, saw its November 2006 sales rise 6% over November 2005's weak post-fire-sale sales.
Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler, AG, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .40, saw its November 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 3%.
Ford Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .48, saw its November 2006 U.S. auto sales plunge 11% from last November's post-fire-sale sales.
Combined, Big Three unit sales in November 2006 were 621,813, nearly unchanged from their weak post-fire-sale sales of 620,436 in November 2005.
On balance, it seems unlikely that Big Three sales will dramatically deteriorate over the next 3 years, as (1) the bulk of their remaining customer base probably have few information acquisition skills and little understanding of the information they happen upon and (2) Steve Harris, GM's head of communications, will likely be a busy beaver curtailing public access to negative news.
Nonetheless, change may be dramatic 5 to 10 years hence. The following table points to a highly unstable circumstance.
Such huge gaps between suggested retail prices and estimated true values may precipitate single digit U.S. market shares for 2 or more of the Big Three over a 3-to-5-year period, should a significant unsettling event occur to catalyze such. Without such an event, see "Ford Motor and GM: Where to from Here?" Auto on Info, September 2006, for site manager's assessment on likely market shares for GM and Ford circa 2016.
The year-to-date U.S. auto market shares through November, that are tracked, were unchanged from those through October.
Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, and Year-to-Date 2006, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993
Manu- facturer 1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 YTD 2006 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993 Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .13 .15 .23 .08 .08 Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .09 .09 .14 .05 .04 Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .06 .16 .10 N/A Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .03 .03 .05 .02 N/A GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .26 .24 .04 -.20 -.10 Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .17 .17 .07 -.10 -.09 Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .14 .13 .00 -.13 -.02 *The Estimate of Natural Market Share for each manufacturer, save Hyundai, is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts. Hyundai's Natural Market Share Estimate is based on (1) its 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average relative to GM's and (2) its product prices relative to those of GM. A different method of estimating the Natural Market Share of Hyundai is used as its reliability has notably improved since the late 1980s, but still does not significantly differ from GM's.
In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, GM (1998-2002 RPA of .32) clobbered Hyundai (1998-2002 RPA of .41) in November 2006; Hyundai's sales fell 15%.
U.S. November 2006 auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1998-2002 RPA of .32, rose 19%, and sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1998-2002 RPA of .32, rose 14%.
In the niche markets, Porsche November 2006 U.S. auto sales fell 2%, BMW sales fell 4%, and Mercedes-Benz sales rose 21%.
Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover. Percentage unit sales changes for November 2006 over November 2005 are daily-selling-rate percentage changes and conse
