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The 2006
Updates: Toyota Age-Equivalent Estimates: Estimates of When a Typical 1998 Model
of Toyota Motor Corporation Will Be as Troublesome as Typical 1998 Models of
General Motors Corporation and Its Several Marques Were Circa 3 Years, 4 Years,
..., and 7 Years of Age
Auto on Info November 2006
The 2006 Updates: Toyota Age-Equivalent Estimates: Estimates of When a Typical 1998 Model of Toyota Motor Corporation Will Be as Troublesome as Typical 1998 Models of General Motors Corporation and Its Several Marques Were Circa 3 Years, 4 Years, ..., and 7 Years of Age
By James B. Bleeker
We begin with the following table of Reliability Score averages for model year 1998.
Next, we plot the Reliability Score averages of Toyota Motor Corporation for each of the above age ranges (2-to-4 years, 3-to-5 years, ..., 4-to-6 years) and make an extrapolation of these plots, a linear regression of degree one. We will first determine an estimate of when a typical 1998 model of Toyota Motor Corporation will be as troublesome as a typical 1998 model of General Motors Corporation at about age 3 years. To do this, we plot GM's Reliability Score average for the first age range (2-to-4 years) and draw a horizontal line. For the x-axis, we use the midpoint of each age range. We have:
The equation on the chart is the regression equation for Toyota's extrapolation. From the chart's extrapolation, we see the estimate of when a typical 1998 Toyota model may be as troublesome as a typical 1998 GM model circa age 3 years to be about 18 years. By computation, substituting GM's rounded Reliability Score average of .30 (for age range 2-to-4 years) for y in Toyota's regression equation, we obtain an estimate of 17.8 years. Another way of viewing the result is: If a typical 1998 GM vehicle became unacceptable to own by reason of trouble or risk of trouble at about 3 years old (calendar year 2001 or earlier), then a typical 1998 Toyota vehicle may become unacceptable to own at about age 17.8 years, or circa calendar year 2016.
The next four charts depict similarly derived estimates of age equivalents (with respect to vehicular deterioration) for a typical 1998 model of Toyota corresponding to approximate ages 4 years, 5 years, 6 years, and 7 years of a typical 1998 GM model.
Note that each succeeding chart requires an extrapolation increasingly farther into the future and consequently is increasingly more speculative. Nonetheless, these are Auto on Info's best estimates from available data.
By substituting the above rounded table values for y and performing a little algebra, we have Toyota age-equivalent estimates of 21.7 years, 24.6 years, 29.1 years and 31.7 years corresponding to approximate ages 4 years, 5 years, 6 years and 7 years of a typical 1998 GM model.
For reference, the next chart helps depict respective rates of vehicular deterioration for Toyota Motor Company and General Motors Corporation for model year 1998.
By substituting the Reliability Score averages for each of GM's marques into Toyota's regression equation, we obtain the following table of Toyota age-equivalent estimates, rounded to the nearest whole year.
The next table provides Toyota age-equivalent estimates in calendar years.
For reference, we provide a more comprehensive table of Toyota age-equivalent estimates, which includes all manufacturers with sizable sales in 1998, and their marques.
Using the same computational method, we obtain a table of age-equivalent estimates for the Toyota marque.
Note that age-equivalent estimates for the Lexus marque are not obtainable, as the Reliability Score averages show no ascertainable deterioration in the Lexus line from age range 2-to-4 years to age range 6-to-8 years.
It will be interesting to see how these age-equivalent estimates change in subsequent years, as more data roll in, if in any meaningful way they do.
Source: Auto on Info data banks
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