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AFP
Reports J.D. Powers Says 61% of U.S. Car Buyers Want Reliability and Durability:
More Disastrous News for GM?
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AFP Reports J.D. Powers Says 61% of U.S. Car Buyers Want Reliability and Durability: More Disastrous News for GM?
By James B. Bleeker
In an article entitled "US Car Buyers Want Reliability, Not Fuel Economy: Survey" and distributed October 4, 2006, on Yahoo! News, the Agence France Presse reports that 61% of the U.S. respondents to a J.D. Powers and Associates survey stated that in the purchase of a motor vehicle their primary interest is reliability and durability.
This is not good news for the Big Three, as the following chart depicts.
And this is not good news at all for General Motors Corporation, as the next chart depicts.
This latter chart suggests that a typical 1998 Toyota model may, at about 20 years old, be more reliable than a typical 1998 General Motors model at about 3 years old. (See "The 2006 Updates: Toyota and Honda Account for 4 Most Durable Vehicle Lines; General Motors - 4 of 10 Worst: Will a Typical Toyota or Honda 1998 Model Be More Trouble Free at 20 Years of Age Than a Typical 1998 GM Model at 3?" Auto on Info, October 2006.)
Consequently, as reliability and durability information trickles through all levels of U.S. society, the Big Three may be left with only 39% of the U.S. new car consumers. If distributed equally, each of the Big Three gets 13%, about what Chrysler has today. However, if reliability and durability is of some - albeit not primary - concern to the remaining 39%, GM, with its perennial dominance of most unreliable lists (see "Reliability Updates: Best and Worst Cars and Trucks Tables: A Chart Summary," Auto on Info, September 2006, "Reliability Updates: Toyota and Honda Still Tops, But Lose Luster; General Motors Still Worst of Major Auto Manufacturers; Hyundai Clobbers GM Yet Again," Auto on Info, September 2006, "Into the Pits and Down and Under Charges the General; General Motors Sets Record Share of CR's Much-Worse-Than-Average," Auto on Info, February 2006, "General Motors and DaimlerChrysler Again Dominate CR's Used-Cars-to-Avoid List," Auto on Info, February 2006), may be left with a U.S. market share in the mid-single digits. This conforms well to this site's natural market share estimate for GM of 4%. (See Table II of "In the U.S. in September 2006, Consumer March to Quality Keeps Its Pace: Toyota Sales Soar, Ford Ekes Out Miniscule Gain over Disastrous September 2005, GM and Chrysler Tumble," Auto on Info, October 2006.)
Nonetheless, information trickles slowly at the bottom end of U.S. society. Furthermore, GM's resuscitation of the talents of Steve Harris, formerly retired GM communications vice president recently rehired to "quiet, if not reverse, the relentless drumbeat of negative press,"1 should help retard information distribution. These two factors combined should permit GM to move from a U.S. market share of 24% to one of 4% over a couple of decades, more than enough time to cope with the market-share decline by downsizing without multiple recourse to Chapter 13 bankruptcy reorganizations. So, there is some reason for gloom, but little for doom.
1 "Tom Walsh: GM, Ford CEOs strapped in for a Long Bumpy Ride," Tom Walsh, Detroit Free Press, September 10, 2006, at http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060910/BUSINESS01/609100676
Sources: "US Car Buyers Want Reliability, Not Fuel Economy: Survey," AFP, October 4, 2006, available at Yahoo! News, "Ford Motor and GM: Where to from Here?" Auto on Info, September 2006, "The 2006 Updates: Toyota and Honda Account for 4 Most Durable Vehicle Lines; General Motors - 4 of 10 Worst: Will a Typical Toyota or Honda 1998 Model Be More Trouble Free at 20 Years of Age Than a Typical 1998 GM Model at 3?" Auto on Info, October 2006, "Reliability Updates: Best and Worst Cars and Trucks Tables: A Chart Summary," Auto on Info, September 2006, "Reliability Updates: Toyota and Honda Still Tops, But Lose Luster; General Motors Still Worst of Major Auto Manufacturers; Hyundai Clobbers GM Yet Again," Auto on Info, September 2006, "Into the Pits and Down and Under Charges the General; General Motors Sets Record Share of CR's Much-Worse-Than-Average," Auto on Info, February 2006, "General Motors and DaimlerChrysler Again Dominate CR's Used-Cars-to-Avoid List," Auto on Info, February 2006, Table II-MVRP
Post Script: It is interesting to note that site manager was unable to find a second source for the primary interest - reliability and durability - voiced by respondents in this survey, although some news articles made mention of the lesser concerns found in the J.D. Power survey. It may be that Mr. Harris is quite effective at curtailing distribution of unpleasant, unwanted or nonconforming information, although to shareholders, bondholders, and financial advisers, this particular piece of information would seem to be of primary importance.
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