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the U.S. in September 2006, Consumer March to Quality Keeps Its Pace: Toyota Sales Soar,
Ford Ekes Out Miniscule Gain over Disastrous September 2005, GM and Chrysler Tumble
Auto on Info October 2006
In the U.S. in September 2006, Consumer March to Quality Keeps Its Pace: Toyota Sales Soar, Ford Ekes Out Miniscule Gain over Disastrous September 2005, GM and Chrysler Tumble
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 20% in September 2006, over those of September 2005, to set a new September sales record. Its U.S. car sales rose 14%, and its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 30%. Year to date, Toyota's U.S. cars sales are up 14% and its truck sales are up 11%.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of September 2006, together with 1998-2002 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among July 2006's Hottest Ten, per WSJ's lot-stay time, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
Table I: September 2006 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model Manufacturer Division Type of Vehicle Model Sales Volume Percentage Change for September 2006 from September 2005 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 222,950 20.2% .90 Scion Division 16,195 15.4% N/A xA 2,901 -0.4% N/A xB 5,535 19.4% N/A tC 7,759 19.6% N/A Toyota Division 181,055 21.8% .90 Passenger Car 96,941 11.9% N/A Avalon 8,365 -7.6% .89 Camry1v,1r,1f,R6 38,2697 -0.1% .889 Corolla1r,R6,2006A 32,279 5.4% .91 Prius*^,1r,1s,R6 10,492 23.1% .861 Yaris 7,534 N/A N/A Light Truck 84,114 35.7% N/A RAV41,1r (SUV) 11,551 93.4% .94 Sienna*,1s,1f,2006A (minivan) 14,348 9.7% .81 Highlander1v,1r,1s,R6,2006A (mid-size SUV) 11,6978 16.1% .991,10 FJ Cruiser (SUV) 5,546 N/A N/A 4Runner1v,1s,R6 (SUV) 8,020 8.9% .9411 Land Cruiser1r,1s,R6 (large SUV) 313 1.7% .92 Tundra1r,1s,R6 (pickup truck) 12,609 67.2% .9412 Tacoma1f (pickup truck) 16,687 9.7% .9413 Lexus Division 25,700 12.1% .92 Passenger Car 14,231 27.0% N/A ES 3501 5,851 11.2% .962 LS 430*^,1r,1s,R6 898 -54.5% .982 GS 350R6 2,485 1.4% .962,3 GS 430 / 450h 2216 -44.4% .962,3 SC 430R6 (hardtop convertible) 457 -27.6% .851,2 IS 250 / 350 4,3194 787.4% .911,2 Light Truck 11,469 -2.1% N/A RX 350*^,1,1s,2006A and 400hR6,2006A (SUV) 8,6885 1.7% .932 GX 4701s (SUV) 2,291 -3.8% N/A LX 470 (large SUV) 490 -38.3% .872 Note: Percentage changes are daily selling rate percentage changes from previous year's version of the model, and Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon. 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The GS 300 and the GS 430 have pooled reliability data and consequently a common Reliability Percentrank. 4The September sales breakdown of the IS series was unstated. 5The RX 350 had September sales of 7,001 and RX 400h - 1,687. 6The GS 430 had September sales of 57 and GS 450h - 164. Note that nearly three times more hybrids of the GS 400+ Series were sold than non-hybrids. 7The non-hybrid Camry had September sales of 34,225 and the Camry hybrid - 4,044. 8The non-hybrid Highlander had September sales of 9,350 and the Highlander hybrid - 2,347. 9The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the 4-cylinder Camry is .88, that for the Camry Solara is .90, and that for the V6 Camry is unavailable. 10The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V8 Highlander is .98. 11This 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank is for the V6 4Runner. 12The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V8 Tundra is .86. 13This 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V6 Tacoma is .93. Bold blue script indicates that the model was in July 2006's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction. Underscored script indicates that the model is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick. A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick. A gold caret (^)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 Top Pick. A gold one (1)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, a Quick Pick with very good or excellent ratings in five categories - road performance, predicted reliability, safety (accident avoidance and crash protection), owner satisfaction, and fuel economy. A gold 1v (1v)indicates that a version of the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick. A gold 1r (1r)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick. A gold 1s (1s)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick. A gold 1f (1f)indicates that the model is an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal. A gold R6 (R6)indicates that the 2006 model has received a Consumer Reports predicted short-term reliability rating of "Most Reliable." Additional 2006 models by Toyota Motor Corporation that are on CR's Most Reliable list are the Toyota Echo, the Toyota Matrix wagon, the Lexus IS300, and the Toyota RAV4 small sport utility vehicle. A gold 2006A (2006A) indicates that the 2006 edition is a CR top-of-vehicle-category Quick Pick. In particular, the 2006 Toyota Corolla is a CR 2006 All-Around Competence and Safety Quick Pick, the 2006 Toyota V6 and Hybrid Highlander and the 2006 Lexus RX400h/RX350 are CR 2006 Comfort, Versatility, and Snow Traction Quick Picks, and the 2006 Toyota Sienna is a CR 2006 Minivan Quick Pick. The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in September 2006 over September 2005 were the Lexus IS 250 / 350, up 787.4% to 4,319, the Toyota RAV4 small sport-utility vehicle, up 93.4% to 11,551, the Toyota Tundra pickup truck, up 67.2% to 12,609, the Toyota Sequoia large sport-utility vehicle, up 37.7% to 3,343, the Toyota Prius, up 23.1% to 10,492, the Scion tC, up 19.6% to 7,759, the Scion xB, up 19.4% to 5,535, the Toyota Highlander sport-utility vehicle, up 16.1% to 11,697, the Lexus ES 350, up 11.2% to 5,851, the Toyota Tacoma pickup truck, up 9.7% to 16,687, the Toyota Sienna minivan, up 9.7% to 14,348, the Toyota 4Runner midsize sport-utility vehicle, up 8.9% to 8,020, and the legendary Toyota Corolla, up 5.4% to 32,279.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in September 2006 2006 Lexus IS 350 2006 Toyota RAV4 2006 Toyota Tundra Toyota Sequoia 2006 Toyota Prius 2006 Scion tC 2006 Scion xB 2006 Toyota Highlander 2006 Toyota Highlander Hybrid 2006 Lexus ES 330 2006 Toyota Tacoma 2006 Toyota Sienna 2006 Toyota 4Runner 2006 Toyota Corolla The above links are to onsite review pages for the 2006 models. Toyota's Scion line, up 15.4% for the month, is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart.
The Toyota Prius, up 23.1% for the month, is Toyota's gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the post-2004 editions is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the post-2004 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.1 In short, the post-2004 editions of the Prius are a bigger car with better gas mileage than its pre-2004 editions. Third, the Prius is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick, a CR 2004 Top Pick, a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick, a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, a CR 2005 fuel efficiency Quick Pick, a CR 2005 Top Pick, and a recipient of a Consumer Reports 2006 "Most Reliable" rating.
The Toyota Corolla, up 5.4% in September, is an internationally renowned 40-year legend of reliability, durability, and pleasing performance and appearance. As a buyer from Africa at Dubai's mid-eastern auto mart Ducamz put it: Everyone wants one. Indeed, life may not be complete without having owned a Corolla, and life may be appreciably less interesting without having owned the same one for at least 20 years and 400,000 miles.
U.S. sales of the Lexus LX 470 through September 2006 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 68.0%.
The likelihood of finding a 2006 made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla or Camry on a U.S. dealer lot is not good; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 85.5% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. through September 2006 were made in North America and 82.4% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. through September 2006 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla or Toyota Camry is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers seeking a made-in-Japan 2006 Lexus RX are more fortunate, as it appears that North American produced RXs account for only about two-thirds of the U.S. sold RXs. U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2006 Toyota Avalon are without any hope, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America; this may account for their modest predicted short-term reliability.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .88, saw its September 2006 U.S. auto sales fall 8% to 116,226. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in September 2006 over September 2005 were - excluding the Honda Insight and Acura NSX, which have nominal sales - the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle (a CR 2006 comfort-versatility-and-snow-traction Quick Pick, with the 2006 EX edition accorded a CR short-term predicted reliability in the highest category and a CR crash protection rating in the highest category), up 18.5% to 12,185, the Honda Odyssey minivan (1997-2001 RPA of .81 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category, but with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability only in the middle category, also a CR 2005 and 2006 Top Pick and an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal), up 7.4% to 13,790, and the Honda Pilot sport utility vehicle (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 and 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, a CR 2004 and 2005 Top Pick, and a CR 2006 Comfort, Versatility, and Snow Traction Quick Pick, and with the Pilot EX-L edition a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 4.5% to 10,001.
Honda's Hottest Sellers in September 2006 2006 Honda CR-V 2006 Honda Odyssey 2006 Honda Pilot The above links are to onsite review pages for the 2006 models. Through September 2006, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 17,604 vehicles, or 14.5%, and the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 340 vehicles, or 0.3%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1998-2002 RPA of .97 and a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1998-2002 RPA of .94 and a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, the Honda Odyssey has not fared well of late. Its 1999-2002 Reliability Percentrank average is only .70 (in contrast to its 1995-1998 RPA of .965 and in contrast to the Toyota Sienna's 1999-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .825) and Consumer Reports accords its 2006 model year a predicted short-term reliability of only average, something of a disaster for a Honda-engineered product. However, as with the North-American-made Toyota Avalon, only time will tell what the Odyssey's actual short-term (1-to-3-year) reliability, mid-term (4-to-6-year) reliability, and longer term (7-to-8-year) reliability will be.
Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1998-2002 RPA of .75, saw its September 2006 U.S. auto sales fall 4%. Its car sales rose 3%, but its truck sales fell 13%.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .73, saw its U.S. auto sales fall 9% in September 2006. Its U.S. car sales fell 15% and its U.S. truck sales fell 1%.
Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .65, saw its September 2006 U.S. auto sales fall 2%. Its car sales fell 18%, but its truck sales rose 45%.
Overall, the September 2006 sales by the auto manufacturers of higher quality products were solid, but that was mainly because of Toyota's dramatic gain. U.S. sales by Toyota rose 20%.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .32, saw its September 2006 sales fall 7%. This continues to leave General Motors with a year-to-date U.S. market share loss of two notches, that is, two percentage points, from its final 2005 U.S. market share. An annual market share loss of only two percentage points is almost certainly sustainable for several years without multiple bankruptcy filings, about the best news that GM should expect.
Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler, AG, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .40, saw its September 2006 U.S. auto sales fall 7% as well.
Ford Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .48, saw its September 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 1%.
The year-to-date U.S. auto market shares through September, that are tracked, were unchanged from those through August.
Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, and Year-to-Date 2006, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993
Manu- facturer 1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 YTD 2006 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993 Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .13 .15 .23 .08 .08 Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .09 .09 .14 .05 .04 Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .06 .16 .10 N/A Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .03 .03 .05 .02 N/A GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .26 .24 .04 -.20 -.10 Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .17 .17 .07 -.10 -.09 Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .14 .13 .00 -.13 -.02 *The Estimate of Natural Market Share for each manufacturer, save Hyundai, is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts. Hyundai's Natural Market Share Estimate is based on (1) its 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average relative to GM's and (2) its product prices relative to those of GM. A different method of estimating the Natural Market Share of Hyundai is used as its reliability has notably improved since the late 1980s, but still does not significantly differ from GM's.
In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, GM (1998-2002 RPA of .32) clobbered Hyundai (1998-2002 RPA of .41) in September 2006; Hyundai's sales plunged 16% as GM's tumbled only 7%.
U.S. September 2006 auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1998-2002 RPA of .32, rose 49%, while sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1998-2002 RPA of .32, fell 2%.
In the niche markets, Porsche September 2006 U.S. auto sales fell 1%, BMW sales plunged 11%, and Mercedes-Benz sales rose 9%. In September 2006, old line European nobility's grip on U.S. fealty weakened a tad.
Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover. Percentage unit sales changes for September 2006 over September 2005 are daily-selling-rate percentage changes and consequently take account of the fact that there were 26 selling days in September 2006 and 25 in September 2005.
Source for September 2006 auto manufacturer sales data: "Automobile Sales Statistics," The Wall Street Journal, October 4, 2006, p. A13 (Note that in the Journal's table, percentage changes are not daily-selling-rate percentage changes and that sales totals for the Big Three include sales of their European lines.)
Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Reports September Sales," October 3, 2006, at http://pressroom.toyota.com/Releases/View?id=TYT2006100344525
Source for Honda sales data: "American Honda Reports Record September Truck Sales," October 3, 2006, http://www.hondanews.com/CatID1000?mid=2006100357352&mime=asc
Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: Auto on Info's Table I-MVRP
Source for July 2006's hottest ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, August 10, 2006, p. D2 (See "By WSJ's Lot-Stay Time, Made-in-Japan TMC Models Account for 7 of July's Hottest 10," Auto on Info, August 2006.)
Sources for
