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President Bush Says GM and Ford Must Make a Relevant Product, But Can They and
Should They Try?
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U.S. President Bush Says GM and Ford Must Make a Relevant Product, But Can They and Should They Try?
The Wall Street Journal reports that President Bush, in an Oval Office interview and in response to queries regarding the possibility of a government bailout, said that General Motors Corporation and Ford Motor Company should develop "a product that is relevant."1 However, can they, in any reasonable time and with any reasonable effort, and should they try?
The following table shows a very consistent gap in the Reliability Percentrank averages of Toyota Motor Corporation and the Big Three, that when projected will last for many years to come.
This gap may have been simply a consequence of a concern that improved reliability may entail only lost sales of replacement parts and lost earnings and a fear that improving and extending reliability and life expectancy may result in the demise of one or more of the Big Three, a desirable result only if oblivion embraces another, or the other two, of the Big Three.
However, it may well rather have been a consequence of an inability to identify a significant number of the factors making for high reliability. For example, if Toyota engines (or transmissions) perform well 2 times (or 3 times or 4 times or 5 times) longer than those of the Big Three, is this the result of the proportion, composition, and order and manner of assembly of the engine components and engine (or transmission components and transmission), or is it the result of the proportion, composition, location, and order and manner of assembly of all other automotive components? And irrespective of whether the former, latter, or both be true, the remaining question is: What is the combination of proportion, composition, location, and order and manner of assembly that will accord high reliability? Answers to such and similar inquiries may take decades of dedicated effort to obtain. So, given the time, effort, and risks of extinction that improving reliability may entail, is such improvement by a Big Three a desirable route to pursue in lieu of continuous downsizing?
Maybe, if there were some prospect of lasting benefit. However, the following chart shows that Ford's multi-year improvements in reliability stature proved to be very short-lived, either because the other two of the Big Three matched them or because old ways quickly re-emerged when opportunity arose.
On balance, making "a relevant product," if achievable, may be best left by the Big Three as a route of last resort.
1 "Bush Plays Down Bailout Prospects For GM and Ford," by Christopher Cooper and John D. McKinnon, The Wall Street Journal, January 26, 2006, page A1
Source of Reliability Percentrank averages: Table I
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