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MPR's Senior Economics and Business Editor Predicts GM Bankruptcy in 2006
By James B. Bleeker
On Minnesota Public Radio's December 30, 2005, midday broadcast, Chris Farrell, MPR's Senior Economics and Business Editor, predicted that General Motors Corporation will file a Chapter 11 bankruptcy petition in 2006. He expressed optimism that accrued pension benefits would survive the filing; other comments suggested that he was less optimistic on other legacy matters.
Site manager's assessment regarding GM is:
1. GM will likely file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization before May 2007; however, this has little to do with its long-term survival.
2. For long-term survival, based on GM's accelerated loss of market share in the past two years, it likely must step out of its perennial dominance of the worst cars and trucks sold in the U.S. (For reference, see Summary of the Best and Worst.) As such past dominance suggests problems in every, or nearly every, institutional process within the company, it needs a restructuring far exceeding a mere financial reorganization.
3. To accomplish such, GM needs, in its office of chief executive, a fellow as bold, brilliant, analytical, innovative, and daring as Athens' Demosthenes, in lieu of Rick Wagoner, whose remarks often seem to reek of a reality, or a fantastic version of it, a half century into the past.
4. However, to his credit, Mr. Wagoner seems well skilled in delaying tactics. If he is as successful in postponing disaster in the future as he has been in the past, GM has 5 years to find a bold, brilliant, innovative leader. If not, as few as two.
5. Irrespective of whether such a leader is found soon enough to salvage GM, at the very least he should make the North American car wars, and likely cars, both improved and exciting.
The following poll permits the reader to express his assessment on GM's and Ford's likely first bankruptcy filing.
To view responses to the above poll, click here
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