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In the U.S. in
September 2005, Quality Four Sales March On, GM and Ford Sales Plunge
Auto on Info October 2005
In the U.S. in September 2005, Quality Four Sales March On, GM and Ford Sales Plunge
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 10% in September 2005, over those of September 2004, to set a new September sales record. Its U.S. car sales rose 22%, but its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales fell 4%.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of September 2005, together with 1997-2001 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among July 2005's Hottest Ten (actually dozen, by tie), per WSJ's lot-stay time, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. (The Wall Street Journal publishes the Hottest Ten list rather irregularly, likely because it changes so little over time.) That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
Table I: September 2005 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model Manufacturer Division Type of Vehicle Model Sales Volume Percentage Change for September 2005 from September 2004 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 178,417 10.3% .90 Scion Division 13,495 30.1% N/A xA 2,800 28.3% N/A xB 4,459 12.8% N/A tC 6,236 47.0% N/A Toyota Division 142,886 8.9% .90 Passenger Car 83,285 21.8% N/A Avalon 8,707 270.8% .86 Camry1v,1r,1f 36,842 6.4% .90 Corolla1r 29,446 12.2% .93 Prius*^,1r,1s 8,193 90.1% .851 Light Truck 59,601 -5.2% N/A Sienna*,1s,1f (minivan) 12,579 7.5% .80 Highlander1v,1r,1s (SUV) 9,684 -4.6% .981 4Runner1v,1s (SUV) 7,080 -24.3% .96 Land Cruiser1r,1s (SUV) 296 -51.8% .91 Tundra1r,1s (pickup truck) 7,253 -19.2% .921 Tacoma1f (pickup truck) 14,632 21.5% .94 Lexus Division 22,036 9.2% .92 Passenger Car 10,771 15.7% N/A ES 3301 5,060 2.7% .952 LS 430*^,1r,1s 1,897 -22.5% .972 GS 300 2,357 351.5% .933 GS 430 382 360.2% .932,3 SC 430 (hardtop convertible) 607 -13.2% N/A Light Truck 11,265 3.6% N/A RX 330*^,1,1s and 400h (SUV) 8,212 9.1% .922 GX 4701s (SUV) 2,289 -11.5% N/A LX 470 764 -0.5% .852 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The GS 300 and the GS 430 have pooled reliability data and consequently a common Reliability Percentrank. Bold blue script indicates that the model was in July 2005's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction. Underscored script indicates that the model is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick. A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick. A gold caret (^)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 Top Pick. A gold one (1)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, a Quick Pick with very good or excellent ratings in five categories - road performance, predicted reliability, safety (accident avoidance and crash protection), owner satisfaction, and fuel economy. A gold 1v (1v)indicates that a version of the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick. A gold 1r (1r)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick. A gold 1s (1s)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick. A gold 1f (1f)indicates that the model is an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal. The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in September 2005 over September 2004 were the Lexus GS 430 sedan, up 360.2% to 382, the Lexus GS 300 sedan, up 351.5% to 2,357, the Toyota Avalon large sedan, up 270.8% to 8,707, the Toyota Prius gas-electric hatchback, up 90.1% to 8,193, the Toyota Scion tC, up 47.0% to 6,236, the Scion xA, up 28.3% to 2,800, the Toyota Tacoma pickup truck, up 21.5% to 14,632, the Scion xB, up 12.8% to 4,459, the Toyota Corolla small sedan, up 12.2% to 29,446, the Lexus RX 330/400h sport utility vehicle, up 9.1% to 8,212, the Toyota Sienna minivan, up 7.5% to 12,579, and the Toyota Camry, up 6.4% to 36,842.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in September 2005 2005 Lexus GS 430 2005 Lexus GS 300 2005 Toyota Avalon 2005 Toyota Prius 2005 Scion tC 2005 Scion xA 2005 Toyota Tacoma 2005 Scion xB 2005 Toyota Corolla 2005 Lexus RX 330 2005 Toyota Sienna 2005 Toyota Camry The above links are to onsite review pages. Toyota's Scion line, up 30.1% for the month, is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart.
The Toyota Prius, up 90.1% for the month, is Toyota's gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the 2005 edition is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the 2005 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.1 In short, the 2005 edition of the Prius is a bigger car with better gas mileage than its pre-2004 editions. Third, it is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick, a CR 2004 Top Pick, a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick, a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, a CR 2005 fuel efficiency Quick Pick, and a CR 2005 Top Pick. Nonetheless, the Prius has a stalling glitch. (See "Prius Has Stalling Glitch, NHTSA Commences Investigation," Auto on Info, June 2005.) It will likely be incumbent upon Toyota to resolve it, for sales momentum to be maintained.
The Toyota Corolla, up 12.2% for the month, is an internationally renowned 39-year legend of reliability, durability, and pleasing performance and appearance. As a buyer from Africa at Dubai's mid-eastern auto mart Ducamz put it: Everyone wants one. Indeed, life may not be complete without having owned a Corolla, and life may be appreciably less interesting without having owned the same one for at least 20 years and 400,000 miles.
The reliability of the North American made Toyota Avalon has improved in recent years (a 2000-2001 RPA of .94 vs. a 1995-1999 RPA of .82) and now appears to be comparable to Toyota's made-in-Japan products.
U.S. sales of the Lexus LX 470 through September 2005 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 67.1%.
The likelihood of finding a 2005 made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla or Camry on a U.S. dealer lot is small; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 96.9% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. so far in 2005 have been made in North America and 93.8% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. so far in 2005 have been made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the consumer will have to buy used.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .84, saw its September 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 12%. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in September 2005 over September 2004 were - excluding the Honda Insight and Acura NSX, which have nominal sales - the Acura RL sedan (1997-2001 RPA of .89 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 977.8% to 1,552, the gas-propelled Honda Civic (1997-2001 RPA of .91 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick and with the Honda Civic EX also being a CR 2005 fuel economy Quick Pick and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 37.8% to 28,249, the Honda S2000 convertible (with a 1997-2001 RPA of .81 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the middle category and a CR 2005 predicted owner satisfaction in the highest category), up 36.7% to 659, the Honda Odyssey minivan (1997-2001 RPA of .81 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category, also a CR 2005 Top Pick and an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal), up 29.6% to 12,347, the Honda Civic Hybrid (too recent to have a 1997-2001 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick, a CR fuel economy Quick Pick, and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 24.8% to 1,916, and the gas-propelled and hybrid Honda Accord (with a pre-hybrid 1997-2001 RPA of .90 and with a post-hybrid CR predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category, the Honda Accord EX - a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, and the Honda Accord Hybrid - a CR 2005 fuel economy Quick Pick, a CR 2005 safety Quick Pick, a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 11.7% to 33,884.
Honda's Hottest Sellers in September 2005 2005 Acura RL 2005 Honda Civic coupe and sedan 2005 Honda Civic Si 2-door hatchback 2005 Honda S2000 2005 Honda Odyssey 2005 Honda Civic hybrid 2005 Honda Accord EX 2005 Honda Accord Hybrid The above links are to onsite review pages. Through September 2005, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 10,224 vehicles, or 8.3%, and the Honda CR-V sport utility vehicle outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 58,278 vehicles, or 103.2%. However, with regard to reliability, the Honda Odyssey has not fared well of late. Its 1999-2001 Reliability Percentrank average is only .70. By contrast, its 1995-1998 RPA is .975.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank average of .81, increased its U.S. auto sales by 16% in September 2005 to set a new September sales record. Its U.S. car sales rose 27% and its U.S. truck sales rose 4%. Nissan Motor Company's models showing the largest gains in U.S. sales in September 2005 over September 2004 were the Infiniti M45 sedan (too recent for a 1997-2001 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 1351.2% to 2,351, the Nissan Pathfinder sport utility vehicle(1997-2001 RPA of .85), up 134.7% to 5,088, the Nissan Sentra sedan (1997-2001 RPA of .66 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second lowest category), up 65.8% to 11,172, the Nissan Altima sedan (1997-2001 RPA of .78 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the middle category, also with the 3.5 SE V6 edition a CR 2005 safety Quick Pick), up 24.2% to 26,442, the Nissan Maxima sedan (1997-2001 RPA of .88 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category, also with the 3.5 SE edition a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 15.9% to 8,645, the Infiniti G35 sport sedan (no 1997-2001 RPA, but CR accords the G35 sport sedan and coupe a 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 11.2% to 3,479, the Nissan Frontier pickup truck (1997-2001 RPA of .81), up 9.0% to 6,535, and the Nissan Murano sport utility vehicle (too recent for a 1997-2001 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and with the Murano SL edition a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 5.5% to 5,306.
Nissan's Hottest Sellers in September 2005 2005 Infiniti M45 2005 Nissan Pathfinder 2005 Nissan Sentra No photo available 2005 Nissan Altima 2005 Nissan Maxima 2005 Infiniti G35 2005 Nissan Frontier 2005 Nissan Murano Subaru, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .82, saw its September 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 2%. Its car sales rose 7% but its truck sales fell 9%.
Mazda, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .70, saw its September 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 5%. Its car sales rose 11%, but its truck sales fell 10%.
In summary, the September 2005 sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products were solid; sales by Toyota, Honda, and Nissan were excellent, with increases of 10%, 12%, and 16%, respectively.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .30, saw its September sales plunge 24%. Even with its "employee prices for everyone" campaign, GM was hard put to find buyers. Without this campaign, GM sales in the fourth quarter may not be good at all.
Chrysler, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .40, saw its September 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 4%. It appears that the marketing and sales departments of Chrysler have the knack to sell, with good incentives in place, farts in a can, a prowess likely quite disconcerting to, and envied by, GM and Ford.
Ford, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .51, saw its September 2005 U.S. auto sales plunge 20%. With the expiration of its "employee prices for everyone" campaign, Ford's fourth quarter prospects seem to be rather in line with those of GM.
The following table suggests that the most troublesome problem for the Big Three is that the true value of their products - to an informed, rational consumer - may be nothing.
Median Value of a New Big Three Vehicle as Assessed by Mini-Survey Respondents Reporting Ownership of a Quality Four Product on or before July 8, 2005, by Manufacturer Manufacturer Big 3 Vehicle Valued at More Than What Is Currently Asked Big 3 Vehicle Valued at What Is Currently Asked Big 3 Vehicle Valued at Only 95% of What Is Currently Asked Big 3 Vehicle Valued at Only 80% of What Is Currently Asked Big 3 Vehicle Valued at Only 50% of What Is Currently Asked Big 3 Vehicle Valued at Nothing Big 3 Vehicle Valued at Nothing Plus Respondent Would Require $20,000+ per Year to Drive It Big 3 Vehicle Valued at Nothing Plus Respondent Would Require $200,000+ per Year to Drive It Respondent Unwilling to Own a Big Three Vehicle under Any Circumstance Toyota Motor Corporation √ Honda Motor Company √ Subaru Division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd.1 √ Nissan Motor Company1 √ 1 Very few respondents reported owning a product by Nissan or Subaru. The Big Three manufacturers are General Motors Corporation, Ford Motor Company, and the Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler AG. See Glossary. To view more results or to express your assessment of the value of a new Big Three Vehicle, go to Mini-Survey No. 31, "The True Value of a Big Three." However, likely little information trickles into the bottom half of the U.S. population and next to no information trickles into the bottom third, so a little downsizing, possibly with a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing or two, should solve the problems of at least two of the Big Three for another decade.
Market shares through September remained unchanged from those through August.
Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2004, and Year-to-Date 2005, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993
Manu- facturer 1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2004 YTD 2005 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993 Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .12 .13 .23 .10 .06 Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .08 .08 .14 .06 .03 Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .06 .16 .10 N/A Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .02 .03 .05 .02 N/A GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .27 .27 .04 -.23 -.07 Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .18 .18 .07 -.11 -.08 Chrysler .15 .15 .15
